Etoile Carouge vs Aarau Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Etoile Carouge v Aarau — Team-Based Signals
Etoile Carouge vs Aarau Head-to-Head — Last 4 Meetings
Etoile Carouge 1-3 Aarau — Actual Match Statistics
Aarau got the better of Etoile Carouge 3-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
Our pre-match split (37% / 26% / 37%) promised a tight game; Aarau found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged both teams to score (55%), and that read landed as well.
On the day, Etoile Carouge had 62% of the ball to Aarau's 38%, shots finished 16-9, expected goals 1.86 to 1.97.
For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Etoile Carouge had the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.25 goals for Etoile Carouge and 1.00 for Aarau.
What was the final score of Etoile Carouge vs Aarau?
Etoile Carouge 1-3 Aarau in the Switzerland Challenge League on 16/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Etoile Carouge vs Aarau?
Before kick-off our model rated a Etoile Carouge win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Etoile Carouge 37%, draw 26%, Aarau 37%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.