Bellinzona 3-1 Thun — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland Challenge League, 16 May 2025

📅16/05/2025 · 🕒21:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
2.99
Draw
28%
3.54
Away
41%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.21
Over 2.5
52%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.55
No
49%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
8%
1/X
7%
X/1
12%
X/2
15%
X/X
15%
2/1
5%
2/2
18%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
30%
+1.5pp
27%
Draw
25%
+2.7pp
41%
Away Win
45%
-4.1pp
48%
Under 2.5
41%
+7.0pp
52%
Over 2.5
59%
-7.0pp
51%
BTTS Yes
60%
-9.2pp
49%
BTTS No
40%
+9.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bellinzona EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Thun EU Bookmakers 49%
-13% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -5%
1.01/1.53 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.30/0.89
-38% / -17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / +0%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
311 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 274 · 71%
18.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.6
16.9 Crosses 16.1
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bellinzona
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Thun
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.56 xG 0.99
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
280 Passes 292
74% Pass Accuracy 75%
14 Box Touches 18
19 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
09.02.2025 Thun Thun 2-0 HT 1-0 Bellinzona Bellinzona İSV2
04.10.2024 Bellinzona Bellinzona 0-0 HT 0-0 Thun Thun İSV2
20.09.2024 Thun Thun 1-2 HT 0-0 Bellinzona Bellinzona İSV2
13.04.2024 Thun Thun 1-0 HT 0-0 Bellinzona Bellinzona İSV2
27.01.2024 Bellinzona Bellinzona 0-0 HT 0-0 Thun Thun İSV2
13.12.2023 Thun Thun 3-1 HT 1-0 Bellinzona Bellinzona İSV2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bellinzona
3-1
AWAY Thun
1.61 xG 2.01
45% Ball Possession 55%
17 Total Shots 15
8 Shots on Target 7
6 Corners 9
237 Passes 301
78% Pass Accuracy 80%
26 Box Touches 33
21 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Bellinzona vs Thun
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bellinzona got the better of Thun 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was Thun at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Bellinzona had 45% of the ball to Thun's 55%, shots finished 17-15, expected goals 1.61 to 2.01.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Thun led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Bellinzona and 1.17 for Thun.

What was the final score of Bellinzona vs Thun?

Bellinzona 3-1 Thun in the Switzerland Challenge League on 16/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bellinzona vs Thun?

Before kick-off our model rated an Thun win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Bellinzona 31%, draw 27%, Thun 41%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Thun) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Thun) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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