Accrington Stanley 1-2 Gillingham — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 13 Jan 2024

📅13/01/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.27
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
32%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.86
Over 2.5
48%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.75
No
50%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.08
2-3 Goals
42%
1.75
4-5 Goals
20%
3.68
6+ Goals
10%
15.65
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.08 — our 28% vs market 26.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
3.42
1/2
8%
31.0
1/X
6%
13.15
X/1
14%
5.1
X/2
10%
5.8
X/X
11%
4.44
2/1
8%
28.0
2/2
14%
4.09
2/X
9%
13.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
40%
+2.3pp
26%
Draw
27%
-1.0pp
32%
Away Win
33%
-1.3pp
52%
Under 2.5
50%
+2.2pp
48%
Over 2.5
50%
-2.2pp
50%
BTTS Yes
53%
-3.2pp
50%
BTTS No
47%
+3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Accrington Stanley EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Gillingham EU Bookmakers 37%
+9% / +15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -21%
1.78/1.29 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.89/1.09
+28% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -50% / -18%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
286 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 273 · 70%
25.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.4
23.5 Crosses 20.3
2.5 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Accrington Stanley
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Gillingham
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.49 xG 1.17
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 6
237 Passes 166
66% Pass Accuracy 58%
22 Box Touches 26
20 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 1
12.08.2023 Gillingham Gillingham 1-0 HT 1-0 Accrington Stanley Accrington Stanley İN2
26.03.2022 Accrington Stanley Accrington Stanley 1-2 HT 0-0 Gillingham Gillingham İN1
30.10.2021 Gillingham Gillingham 0-0 HT 0-0 Accrington Stanley Accrington Stanley İN1
16.01.2021 Accrington Stanley Accrington Stanley 0-1 HT 0-1 Gillingham Gillingham İN1
15.12.2020 Gillingham Gillingham 0-2 HT 0-1 Accrington Stanley Accrington Stanley İN1
26.10.2019 Accrington Stanley Accrington Stanley 0-1 HT 0-0 Gillingham Gillingham İN1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Accrington Stanley
1-2
AWAY Gillingham
1.09 xG 0.91
51% Ball Possession 49%
15 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 7
302 Passes 267
73% Pass Accuracy 67%
13 Box Touches 37
27 Crosses 28
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Accrington Stanley vs Gillingham
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gillingham edged past Accrington Stanley 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Accrington Stanley at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Accrington Stanley had 51% of the ball to Gillingham's 49%, shots finished 15-11, expected goals 1.09 to 0.91.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Gillingham led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Accrington Stanley and 0.83 for Gillingham.

What was the final score of Accrington Stanley vs Gillingham?

Accrington Stanley 1-2 Gillingham in the England - 2nd Division on 13/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Accrington Stanley vs Gillingham?

Before kick-off our model rated a Accrington Stanley win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Accrington Stanley 42%, draw 26%, Gillingham 32%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Accrington Stanley) ✗ Under 2.5
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