Doncaster Rovers 0-1 Newport County — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 13 Jan 2024

Doncaster Rovers
0-1 HT 0-0
Newport County
📅13/01/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
England - 2nd Division – 2023/2024

Doncaster Rovers vs Newport County Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.05
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
31%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.9
Over 2.5
47%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.75
No
53%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
29%
3.17
2-3 Goals
39%
1.76
4-5 Goals
23%
3.58
6+ Goals
9%
14.65
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.17 — our 29% vs market 25.5%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.91
1/2
6%
34.0
1/X
6%
13.65
X/1
12%
4.56
X/2
6%
6.56
X/X
15%
4.67
2/1
8%
25.5
2/2
20%
4.83
2/X
6%
13.95
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
45%
-4.0pp
28%
Draw
26%
+1.5pp
31%
Away Win
29%
+2.5pp
53%
Under 2.5
49%
+4.4pp
47%
Over 2.5
51%
-4.4pp
47%
BTTS Yes
53%
-5.9pp
53%
BTTS No
47%
+5.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Doncaster Rovers v Newport County — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Doncaster Rovers EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Newport County EU Bookmakers 32%
+1% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / +0%
1.49/1.13 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.04/1.09
+2% / -28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / -5%
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
251 · 68% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 268 · 70%
21.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.1
20.8 Crosses 17.8
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.8

Doncaster Rovers vs Newport County Head-to-Head — Last 5 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Doncaster Rovers
2W-1D-2L
AWAY Newport County
0.80 Avg Goals (FT) 1.40
0.74 xG 1.45
53% Ball Possession 47%
10 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
248 Passes 170
64% Pass Accuracy 56%
13 Box Touches 21
14 Crosses 22
4 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
12.08.2023 Newport County Newport County 4-0 HT 3-0 Doncaster Rovers Doncaster Rovers İN2
22.04.2023 Doncaster Rovers Doncaster Rovers 1-3 HT 1-0 Newport County Newport County İN2
10.12.2022 Newport County Newport County 0-1 HT 0-0 Doncaster Rovers Doncaster Rovers İN2
10.02.2017 Newport County Newport County 0-0 HT 0-0 Doncaster Rovers Doncaster Rovers İN2
17.09.2016 Doncaster Rovers Doncaster Rovers 2-0 HT 1-0 Newport County Newport County İN2

Doncaster Rovers 0-1 Newport County — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Doncaster Rovers
0-1
AWAY Newport County
1.93 xG 0.37
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 5
5 Shots on Target 1
2 Corners 4
319 Passes 200
72% Pass Accuracy 61%
31 Box Touches 14
18 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Doncaster Rovers vs Newport County
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Newport County edged past Doncaster Rovers 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Doncaster Rovers at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Doncaster Rovers had 57% of the ball to Newport County's 43%, shots finished 14-5, expected goals 1.93 to 0.37 — on chances, Doncaster Rovers could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.80 goals for Doncaster Rovers and 1.40 for Newport County.

What was the final score of Doncaster Rovers vs Newport County?

Doncaster Rovers 0-1 Newport County in the England - 2nd Division on 13/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Doncaster Rovers vs Newport County?

Before kick-off our model rated a Doncaster Rovers win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Doncaster Rovers 41%, draw 28%, Newport County 31%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Doncaster Rovers) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Doncaster Rovers) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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