Crewe Alexandra 2-1 Swindon Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 13 Jan 2024

📅13/01/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.92
Draw
23%
3.64
Away
33%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.33
Over 2.5
58%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%
1.53
No
41%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
4.54
2-3 Goals
38%
1.88
4-5 Goals
26%
2.82
6+ Goals
14%
7.98
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.57
1/2
7%
32.0
1/X
10%
12.9
X/1
15%
4.69
X/2
11%
7.51
X/X
8%
5.52
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
21.75
2/2
14%
4.95
2/X
6%
13.2
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.75 — our 8% vs market 2.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
48%
-4.5pp
23%
Draw
24%
-1.1pp
33%
Away Win
28%
+5.5pp
42%
Under 2.5
39%
+3.2pp
58%
Over 2.5
61%
-3.2pp
59%
BTTS Yes
61%
-2.3pp
41%
BTTS No
39%
+2.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Crewe Alexandra EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Swindon Town EU Bookmakers 31%
+10% / +16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / -5%
1.11/1.32 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.34/1.48
+28% / +19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +38% / -8%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
336 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 317 · 76%
24.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.4
20.2 Crosses 15.3
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Crewe Alexandra
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Swindon Town
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.72 xG 1.27
48% Ball Possession 52%
14 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
325 Passes 341
75% Pass Accuracy 73%
30 Box Touches 22
18 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
12.08.2023 Swindon Town Swindon Town 2-2 HT 1-0 Crewe Alexandra Crewe Alexandra İN2
29.04.2023 Crewe Alexandra Crewe Alexandra 2-1 HT 0-1 Swindon Town Swindon Town İN2
19.11.2022 Swindon Town Swindon Town 0-1 HT 0-1 Crewe Alexandra Crewe Alexandra İN2
06.11.2021 Crewe Alexandra Crewe Alexandra 0-3 HT 0-1 Swindon Town Swindon Town FAK
20.02.2021 Swindon Town Swindon Town 2-1 HT 1-1 Crewe Alexandra Crewe Alexandra İN1
01.12.2020 Crewe Alexandra Crewe Alexandra 4-2 HT 1-2 Swindon Town Swindon Town İN1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Crewe Alexandra
2-1
AWAY Swindon Town
1.23 xG 0.68
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 8
319 Passes 274
74% Pass Accuracy 70%
13 Box Touches 20
11 Crosses 23
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Crewe Alexandra vs Swindon Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Crewe Alexandra squeezed past Swindon Town 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Crewe Alexandra as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (58%), both teams to score (59%) came in.

On the day, Crewe Alexandra had 52% of the ball to Swindon Town's 48%, shots finished 11-11, expected goals 1.23 to 0.68.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Crewe Alexandra had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Crewe Alexandra and 1.67 for Swindon Town.

What was the final score of Crewe Alexandra vs Swindon Town?

Crewe Alexandra 2-1 Swindon Town in the England - 2nd Division on 13/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Crewe Alexandra vs Swindon Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Crewe Alexandra win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Crewe Alexandra 44%, draw 23%, Swindon Town 33%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Crewe Alexandra), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Crewe Alexandra) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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