Tranmere Rovers 1-2 Milton Keynes Dons — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 13 Jan 2024

📅13/01/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.53
Draw
29%
3.28
Away
33%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.86
Over 2.5
46%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.73
No
51%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.12
2-3 Goals
37%
1.76
4-5 Goals
24%
3.63
6+ Goals
10%
15.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.12 — our 29% vs market 26.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
3.84
1/2
6%
28.5
1/X
7%
13.25
X/1
14%
5.54
X/2
14%
5.3
X/X
14%
4.5
2/1
7%
30.0
2/2
13%
3.61
2/X
8%
13.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
36%
+1.6pp
29%
Draw
27%
+1.7pp
34%
Away Win
37%
-3.4pp
54%
Under 2.5
50%
+4.1pp
46%
Over 2.5
50%
-4.1pp
49%
BTTS Yes
54%
-5.2pp
51%
BTTS No
46%
+5.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tranmere Rovers EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Milton Keynes Dons EU Bookmakers 40%
+6% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -13%
1.04/1.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.18/1.20
+13% / +14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / -17%
51% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
299 · 69% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 299 · 70%
18.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.3
19.6 Crosses 18.8
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tranmere Rovers
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Milton Keynes Dons
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.86 xG 0.42
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
274 Passes 347
72% Pass Accuracy 74%
22 Box Touches 18
20 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
12.08.2023 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons 1-0 HT 1-0 Tranmere Rovers Tranmere Rovers İN2
02.11.2019 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons 1-3 HT 1-1 Tranmere Rovers Tranmere Rovers İN1
13.04.2019 Tranmere Rovers Tranmere Rovers 2-1 HT 1-1 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons İN2
29.09.2018 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons 1-1 HT 1-1 Tranmere Rovers Tranmere Rovers İN2
01.02.2014 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons 0-1 HT 0-0 Tranmere Rovers Tranmere Rovers İN1
26.10.2013 Tranmere Rovers Tranmere Rovers 3-2 HT 1-1 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons İN1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Tranmere Rovers
1-2
AWAY Milton Keynes Dons
0.21 xG 2.70
35% Ball Possession 65%
5 Total Shots 25
2 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 6
254 Passes 543
72% Pass Accuracy 85%
17 Box Touches 38
10 Crosses 23
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Tranmere Rovers vs Milton Keynes Dons
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Milton Keynes Dons squeezed past Tranmere Rovers 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (38% / 29% / 34%) promised a tight game; Milton Keynes Dons found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Tranmere Rovers had 35% of the ball to Milton Keynes Dons's 65%, shots finished 5-25, expected goals 0.21 to 2.70 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Milton Keynes Dons's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Tranmere Rovers had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Tranmere Rovers and 1.00 for Milton Keynes Dons.

What was the final score of Tranmere Rovers vs Milton Keynes Dons?

Tranmere Rovers 1-2 Milton Keynes Dons in the England - 2nd Division on 13/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tranmere Rovers vs Milton Keynes Dons?

Before kick-off our model rated a Tranmere Rovers win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Tranmere Rovers 38%, draw 29%, Milton Keynes Dons 34%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Tranmere Rovers) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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