Djurgarden 3-0 Pafos — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA Europa Conference League, 13 Mar 2025

Djurgarden
3-0 HT 1-0
Pafos
📅13/03/2025 · 🕒20:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
UEFA Europa Conference League – 2025/2026

Djurgarden vs Pafos Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.67
Draw
29%
3.18
Away
34%
2.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.75
Over 2.5
50%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.76
No
51%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
2.9
2-3 Goals
38%
1.74
4-5 Goals
20%
3.76
6+ Goals
14%
16.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.9 — our 28% vs market 27.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
4.19
1/2
6%
28.0
1/X
7%
13.45
X/1
12%
5.91
X/2
13%
5.27
X/X
15%
4.4
2/1
9%
31.0
2/2
15%
3.52
2/X
7%
13.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
34%
+3.4pp
29%
Draw
28%
+0.9pp
34%
Away Win
38%
-4.3pp
50%
Under 2.5
53%
-2.8pp
50%
Over 2.5
47%
+2.8pp
49%
BTTS Yes
53%
-4.2pp
51%
BTTS No
47%
+4.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Djurgarden v Pafos — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Djurgarden EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Pafos EU Bookmakers 42%
-20% / -20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -27% / -27%
1.20/1.54 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.56/1.25
-16% / -46% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -32% / -18%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
382 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 323 · 79%
22.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 47.0
12.9 Crosses 28.0
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.5

Djurgarden vs Pafos Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Djurgarden
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Pafos
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.14 xG 1.59
34% Ball Possession 66%
11 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 6
165 Passes 380
67% Pass Accuracy 82%
16 Box Touches 35
5 Crosses 32
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
06.03.2025 Pafos Pafos 1-0 HT 0-0 Djurgarden Djurgarden AVKL

Djurgarden 3-0 Pafos — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Djurgarden
3-0
AWAY Pafos
2.38 xG 2.24
48% Ball Possession 52%
14 Total Shots 13
8 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 4
273 Passes 299
77% Pass Accuracy 80%
22 Box Touches 23
11 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 6
POST-MATCH Djurgarden vs Pafos
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Djurgarden swept aside Pafos 3-0. Half-time: 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 29% / 34% — and on the day Djurgarden made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Djurgarden had 48% of the ball to Pafos's 52%, shots finished 14-13, expected goals 2.38 to 2.24.

What was the final score of Djurgarden vs Pafos?

Djurgarden 3-0 Pafos in the UEFA Europa Conference League on 13/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Djurgarden vs Pafos?

Before kick-off our model rated a Djurgarden win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Djurgarden 37%, draw 29%, Pafos 34%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Djurgarden), BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Djurgarden) ✓ BTTS No
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