Fiorentina 3-1 Panathinaikos — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA Europa Conference League, 13 Mar 2025

📅13/03/2025 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.49
Draw
26%
4.08
Away
23%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
1.97
Over 2.5
57%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.9
No
43%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
3.51
2-3 Goals
41%
1.79
4-5 Goals EV+ ✓
26%
3.21
6+ Goals
13%
11.3
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.21 — our 26% vs market 24.9%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1.81
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
10%
16.4
X/1
17%
3.9
X/2
7%
12.7
X/X
9%
5.79
2/1 EV+ ✗
13%
22.55
2/2
8%
10.8
2/X
7%
18.85
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.55 — our 13% vs market 2.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
63%
-12.1pp
26%
Draw
22%
+4.7pp
23%
Away Win
15%
+7.5pp
43%
Under 2.5
47%
-3.8pp
57%
Over 2.5
53%
+3.8pp
57%
BTTS Yes
49%
+8.5pp
43%
BTTS No
51%
-8.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fiorentina EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Panathinaikos EU Bookmakers 18%
-6% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -22% / -22%
2.13/0.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.10/2.03
+12% / -43% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -28% / -11%
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 2
397 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 285 · 76%
36.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.0
26.6 Crosses 27.0
2.2 Yellow Cards 3.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fiorentina
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Panathinaikos
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
1.89 xG 1.51
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 4
314 Passes 320
82% Pass Accuracy 81%
27 Box Touches 25
16 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 1
06.03.2025 Panathinaikos Panathinaikos 3-2 HT 2-2 Fiorentina Fiorentina AVKL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fiorentina
3-1
AWAY Panathinaikos
1.94 xG 1.76
50% Ball Possession 50%
16 Total Shots 18
9 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 5
318 Passes 311
84% Pass Accuracy 83%
20 Box Touches 31
12 Crosses 15
4 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Fiorentina vs Panathinaikos
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fiorentina beat Panathinaikos 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Fiorentina as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (57%), both teams to score (57%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Fiorentina had 50% of the ball to Panathinaikos's 50%, shots finished 16-18, expected goals 1.94 to 1.76.

What was the final score of Fiorentina vs Panathinaikos?

Fiorentina 3-1 Panathinaikos in the UEFA Europa Conference League on 13/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fiorentina vs Panathinaikos?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fiorentina win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Fiorentina 51%, draw 26%, Panathinaikos 23%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Fiorentina), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Fiorentina) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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