Lugano 5-4 Celje — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA Europa Conference League, 13 Mar 2025

Lugano
5-4 HT 3-1
Celje
📅13/03/2025 · 🕒20:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.72
Draw
28%
3.72
Away
29%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.03
Over 2.5
47%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.7
No
49%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
3.73
2-3 Goals
38%
1.8
4-5 Goals
24%
3.08
6+ Goals
10%
10.2
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
2.18
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
14.05
X/1
19%
4.29
X/2
8%
9.37
X/X
10%
5.49
2/1
7%
21.7
2/2
15%
7.17
2/X EV+ ✗
12%
15.45
Value flag · 2/X at 15.45 — our 12% vs market 3.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
54%
-10.9pp
28%
Draw
24%
+4.2pp
29%
Away Win
22%
+6.7pp
53%
Under 2.5
45%
+7.9pp
47%
Over 2.5
55%
-7.9pp
51%
BTTS Yes
55%
-4.2pp
49%
BTTS No
45%
+4.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lugano EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Celje EU Bookmakers 25%
-66% / -66% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +72% / +72%
1.23/1.34 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.93/0.28
-100% / -54% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +103% /
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
373 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 307 · 75%
32.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 37.0
25.0 Crosses 16.0
2.0 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lugano
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Celje
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.85 xG 0.48
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 6
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 6
349 Passes 288
84% Pass Accuracy 81%
28 Box Touches 12
25 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 2
06.03.2025 Celje Celje 1-0 HT 1-0 Lugano Lugano AVKL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lugano
5-4
AWAY Celje
2.78 xG 2.56
42% Ball Possession 58%
16 Total Shots 16
8 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 2
395 Passes 568
84% Pass Accuracy 88%
27 Box Touches 30
20 Crosses 22
5 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Lugano vs Celje
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lugano squeezed past Celje 5-4. Half-time: 3-1. 9 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Lugano as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 5-4 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Lugano had 42% of the ball to Celje's 58%, shots finished 16-16, expected goals 2.78 to 2.56.

What was the final score of Lugano vs Celje?

Lugano 5-4 Celje in the UEFA Europa Conference League on 13/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lugano vs Celje?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lugano win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Lugano 44%, draw 28%, Celje 29%. The final score 5-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lugano), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Lugano) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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