Athletic Bilbao 3-1 Roma — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA Europa League, 13 Mar 2025

📅13/03/2025 · 🕒20:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.92
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
27%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.71
Over 2.5
47%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.88
No
54%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2.72
2-3 Goals
44%
1.74
4-5 Goals
19%
4.02
6+ Goals
10%
19.15
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.71
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
8%
13.85
X/1
14%
4.43
X/2
10%
7.5
X/X
13%
4.34
2/1
7%
26.5
2/2
12%
6.04
2/X
7%
14.9
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
48%
-3.0pp
28%
Draw
27%
+1.4pp
27%
Away Win
25%
+1.6pp
53%
Under 2.5
55%
-1.6pp
47%
Over 2.5
45%
+1.6pp
46%
BTTS Yes
49%
-2.9pp
54%
BTTS No
51%
+2.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Athletic Bilbao EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Roma EU Bookmakers 29%
-9% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -4%
0.20/1.03 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.97/1.34
-39% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -38% / +35%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
360 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 336 · 78%
13.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.8
7.0 Crosses 14.6
2.0 Yellow Cards 3.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Athletic Bilbao
0W-2D-1L
AWAY Roma
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.39 xG 1.30
39% Ball Possession 61%
12 Total Shots 8
2 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 2
288 Passes 495
79% Pass Accuracy 87%
12 Box Touches 22
14 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
06.03.2025 Roma Roma 2-1 HT 0-0 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao AVL
26.09.2024 Roma Roma 1-1 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao AVL
07.08.2019 Roma Roma 2-2 HT 0-1 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao HAZ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Athletic Bilbao
3-1
AWAY Roma
1.84 xG 1.13
70% Ball Possession 30%
22 Total Shots 5
8 Shots on Target 2
9 Corners 2
533 Passes 180
91% Pass Accuracy 68%
45 Box Touches 10
46 Crosses 5
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Athletic Bilbao vs Roma
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Athletic Bilbao saw off Roma 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Athletic Bilbao as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Athletic Bilbao had 70% of the ball to Roma's 30%, shots finished 22-5, expected goals 1.84 to 1.13.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Roma led the recent series with 1 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Athletic Bilbao and 1.67 for Roma.

What was the final score of Athletic Bilbao vs Roma?

Athletic Bilbao 3-1 Roma in the UEFA Europa League on 13/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Athletic Bilbao vs Roma?

Before kick-off our model rated a Athletic Bilbao win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Athletic Bilbao 45%, draw 28%, Roma 27%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Athletic Bilbao) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Athletic Bilbao) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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