Roma 2-1 Athletic Bilbao — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA Europa League, 6 Mar 2025

📅06/03/2025 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.33
Draw
26%
3.04
Away
29%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.62
Over 2.5
48%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.9
No
52%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2.52
2-3 Goals
39%
1.74
4-5 Goals
22%
4.35
6+ Goals
12%
23.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
3.56
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
13.3
X/1
10%
5.15
X/2
10%
6.01
X/X
13%
3.96
2/1
12%
31.0
2/2
14%
4.5
2/X
7%
13.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
39%
+5.2pp
26%
Draw
30%
-3.5pp
29%
Away Win
31%
-1.7pp
52%
Under 2.5
58%
-5.7pp
48%
Over 2.5
42%
+5.7pp
48%
BTTS Yes
49%
-0.4pp
52%
BTTS No
51%
+0.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Roma EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Athletic Bilbao EU Bookmakers 34%
+20% / +20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +12% / +15%
2.14/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.50/0.46
+29% / +143% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +41% / +150%
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
288 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 374 · 79%
20.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.7
11.0 Crosses 13.2
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Roma
0W-2D-0L
AWAY Athletic Bilbao
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.40 xG 1.58
62% Ball Possession 38%
6 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 2
2 Corners 6
509 Passes 281
88% Pass Accuracy 79%
20 Box Touches 7
15 Crosses 4
2 Yellow Cards 2
26.09.2024 Roma Roma 1-1 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao AVL
07.08.2019 Roma Roma 2-2 HT 0-1 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao HAZ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Roma
2-1
AWAY Athletic Bilbao
1.20 xG 1.19
59% Ball Possession 41%
12 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 1
1 Corners 3
467 Passes 303
84% Pass Accuracy 80%
24 Box Touches 17
12 Crosses 23
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Roma vs Athletic Bilbao
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Roma nicked a narrow win over Athletic Bilbao 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Roma as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Roma had 59% of the ball to Athletic Bilbao's 41%, shots finished 12-16, expected goals 1.20 to 1.19.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 0 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Roma and 1.50 for Athletic Bilbao.

What was the final score of Roma vs Athletic Bilbao?

Roma 2-1 Athletic Bilbao in the UEFA Europa League on 06/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Roma vs Athletic Bilbao?

Before kick-off our model rated a Roma win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Roma 44%, draw 26%, Athletic Bilbao 29%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Roma) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Roma) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
AVL More UEFA Europa League
6 Mar 2025
20:45 Real Sociedad vs Manchester United Analysis →
20:45 Fenerbahçe vs Rangers Analysis →
20:45 AZ Alkmaar vs Tottenham Analysis →
20:45 FCSB vs Lyon Analysis →
23:00 Viktoria Plzen vs Lazio Analysis →
23:00 Ajax vs Eintracht Frankfurt Analysis →