AZ Alkmaar 1-0 Tottenham — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA Europa League, 6 Mar 2025

AZ Alkmaar
1-0 HT 1-0
Tottenham
📅06/03/2025 · 🕒20:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
UEFA Europa League – 2024/2025

AZ Alkmaar vs Tottenham Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.84
Draw
23%
3.35
Away
41%
2.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.03
Over 2.5
59%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.61
No
42%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
3.72
2-3 Goals
38%
1.8
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
28%
3.09
6+ Goals
15%
10.3
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.09 — our 28% vs market 26.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
4.46
1/2
9%
24.3
1/X
8%
12.7
X/1
14%
6.68
X/2
14%
5.27
X/X
9%
4.94
2/1
7%
29.5
2/2
18%
3.09
2/X
6%
12.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
32%
+3.9pp
23%
Draw
27%
-3.6pp
41%
Away Win
41%
-0.2pp
41%
Under 2.5
45%
-4.4pp
59%
Over 2.5
55%
+4.4pp
58%
BTTS Yes
58%
+0.2pp
42%
BTTS No
42%
-0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

AZ Alkmaar v Tottenham — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AZ Alkmaar EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Tottenham EU Bookmakers 45%
+27% / +27% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +21% / +21%
2.24/2.21 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.62/1.94
+49% / +57% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +63% / -18%
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
300 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 382 · 80%
18.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 31.3
13.0 Crosses 15.7
2.5 Yellow Cards 0.0

AZ Alkmaar vs Tottenham Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME AZ Alkmaar
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Tottenham
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.43 xG 1.87
41% Ball Possession 59%
9 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
318 Passes 501
80% Pass Accuracy 87%
15 Box Touches 41
8 Crosses 16
4 Yellow Cards 0
The Meetings
24.10.2024 Tottenham Tottenham 1-0 HT 0-0 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar AVL

AZ Alkmaar 1-0 Tottenham — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AZ Alkmaar
1-0
AWAY Tottenham
1.61 xG 0.46
38% Ball Possession 62%
12 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 1
7 Corners 2
264 Passes 510
75% Pass Accuracy 88%
28 Box Touches 13
14 Crosses 10
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH AZ Alkmaar vs Tottenham
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AZ Alkmaar squeezed past Tottenham 1-0.

Our pre-match split (36% / 23% / 41%) promised a tight game; AZ Alkmaar found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (59%), both teams to score (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, AZ Alkmaar had 38% of the ball to Tottenham's 62%, shots finished 12-7, expected goals 1.61 to 0.46.

What was the final score of AZ Alkmaar vs Tottenham?

AZ Alkmaar 1-0 Tottenham in the UEFA Europa League on 06/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AZ Alkmaar vs Tottenham?

Before kick-off our model rated an Tottenham win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split AZ Alkmaar 36%, draw 23%, Tottenham 41%. The final score 1-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Tottenham) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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