Tottenham 1-0 AZ Alkmaar — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA Europa League, 24 Oct 2024

📅24/10/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
63%
1.47
Draw
19%
4.19
Away
18%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.38
Over 2.5
56%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.68
No
51%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
5.0
2-3 Goals
39%
1.95
4-5 Goals
28%
2.76
6+ Goals
13%
7.25
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1.76
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
16.7
X/1
24%
3.82
X/2
5%
13.4
X/X
6%
6.76
2/1 EV+ ✗
14%
20.6
2/2
7%
9.65
2/X
7%
17.2
Value flag · 2/1 at 20.6 — our 14% vs market 2.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
63%
Home Win
64%
-0.4pp
19%
Draw
21%
-1.4pp
18%
Away Win
16%
+1.8pp
44%
Under 2.5
38%
+5.8pp
56%
Over 2.5
62%
-5.8pp
49%
BTTS Yes
56%
-6.9pp
51%
BTTS No
44%
+6.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tottenham EU Bookmakers 68%
Head to Head
AWAY AZ Alkmaar EU Bookmakers 19%
+5% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -16%
2.28/0.35 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.58/2.04
+23% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -84% / -8%
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
443 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 330 · 77%
24.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.1
16.7 Crosses 11.4
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Tottenham
1-0
AWAY AZ Alkmaar
1.87 xG 0.43
59% Ball Possession 41%
16 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
501 Passes 318
87% Pass Accuracy 80%
41 Box Touches 15
16 Crosses 8
0 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Tottenham vs AZ Alkmaar
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tottenham nicked a narrow win over AZ Alkmaar 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Tottenham as the likeliest winner at 63%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Tottenham had 59% of the ball to AZ Alkmaar's 41%, shots finished 16-9, expected goals 1.87 to 0.43 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Tottenham's control.

What was the final score of Tottenham vs AZ Alkmaar?

Tottenham 1-0 AZ Alkmaar in the UEFA Europa League on 24/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tottenham vs AZ Alkmaar?

Before kick-off our model rated a Tottenham win the most likely single outcome at about 63%, with the full match-result split Tottenham 63%, draw 19%, AZ Alkmaar 18%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Tottenham), BTTS No — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Tottenham) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
AVL More UEFA Europa League
24 Oct 2024
19:45 Ferencvaros vs Nice Analysis →
19:45 Maccabi Tel Aviv vs Real Sociedad Analysis →
19:45 Midtjylland vs Union Saint-Gilloise Analysis →
19:45 PAOK vs Viktoria Plzen Analysis →
19:45 Karabağ vs Ajax Analysis →
19:45 Roma vs Dynamo Kiev Analysis →