Tottenham 3-1 AZ Alkmaar — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA Europa League, 13 Mar 2025

📅13/03/2025 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
60%
1.49
Draw
20%
4.19
Away
20%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.29
Over 2.5
56%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.7
No
49%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
4.46
2-3 Goals
39%
1.88
4-5 Goals
28%
2.78
6+ Goals
12%
7.7
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1.81
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
15.55
X/1
17%
4.09
X/2
8%
12.2
X/X
6%
6.55
2/1 EV+ ✗
12%
20.15
2/2
7%
9.41
2/X
8%
17.6
Value flag · 2/1 at 20.15 — our 12% vs market 2.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
60%
Home Win
63%
-2.9pp
20%
Draw
21%
-0.8pp
20%
Away Win
16%
+3.6pp
44%
Under 2.5
40%
+3.9pp
56%
Over 2.5
60%
-3.9pp
51%
BTTS Yes
55%
-3.6pp
49%
BTTS No
45%
+3.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tottenham EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY AZ Alkmaar EU Bookmakers 20%
+2% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -10%
2.48/1.02 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.30/1.67
-8% / +25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -32% / +5%
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
429 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 316 · 77%
35.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.0
16.6 Crosses 11.8
1.3 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tottenham
1W-0D-1L
AWAY AZ Alkmaar
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.17 xG 1.02
60% Ball Possession 40%
12 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
506 Passes 291
88% Pass Accuracy 78%
27 Box Touches 22
13 Crosses 11
0 Yellow Cards 4
06.03.2025 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 1-0 HT 1-0 Tottenham Tottenham AVL
24.10.2024 Tottenham Tottenham 1-0 HT 0-0 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar AVL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Tottenham
3-1
AWAY AZ Alkmaar
2.23 xG 1.19
60% Ball Possession 40%
17 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 2
443 Passes 265
84% Pass Accuracy 75%
39 Box Touches 16
22 Crosses 11
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Tottenham vs AZ Alkmaar
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tottenham beat AZ Alkmaar 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Tottenham as the likeliest winner at 60%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (56%) came in.

On the day, Tottenham had 60% of the ball to AZ Alkmaar's 40%, shots finished 17-10, expected goals 2.23 to 1.19.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Tottenham and 0.50 for AZ Alkmaar.

What was the final score of Tottenham vs AZ Alkmaar?

Tottenham 3-1 AZ Alkmaar in the UEFA Europa League on 13/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tottenham vs AZ Alkmaar?

Before kick-off our model rated a Tottenham win the most likely single outcome at about 60%, with the full match-result split Tottenham 60%, draw 20%, AZ Alkmaar 20%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Tottenham), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Tottenham) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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