Vasco da Gama 2-1 Palmeiras — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 13 Mar 2026

📅13/03/2026 · 🕒01:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Authentic Intelligence™ · Probability per market
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.8
Draw
26%
3.18
Away
36%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under
48%
1.74
Over
52%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes Pick
55%
1.82
No
45%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1
26%
2.8
2-3
37%
1.73
4-5
26%
3.86
6+
11%
17.55
Value flag · 4-5 at 3.86 — our 26% vs market 19.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
4.41
1/2
7%
28.0
1/X
6%
13.25
X/1
15%
6.11
X/2
12%
5.16
X/X
13%
4.22
2/1
7%
33.0
2/2
17%
3.4
2/X
7%
12.9
STRENGTH — green bars inside a box show the pattern support behind that selection, from Good · Strong · Very strong to Great — the deeper the historical record, the fuller the bar; informational, not a sized bet.
EV — the best model-vs-price gap in that group: the market pays more than our probability implies. After full time the tag settles to / . Informational, not a validated tip — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vasco da Gama The Market 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Palmeiras The Market 43%
+10% / +30% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +5%
1.42/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.32/1.25
+45% / +37% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +20% / +1%
48% Ball Possession 52%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
320 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 351 · 81%
18.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.1
19.2 Crosses 19.5
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vasco da Gama
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Palmeiras
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.60 xG 1.45
48% Ball Possession 52%
9 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 7
313 Passes 345
80% Pass Accuracy 83%
12 Box Touches 22
22 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 2
02.10.2025 Palmeiras Palmeiras 3-0 HT 3-0 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BR1
04.05.2025 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 0-1 HT 0-0 Palmeiras Palmeiras BR1
22.09.2024 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 0-1 HT 0-1 Palmeiras Palmeiras BR1
14.06.2024 Palmeiras Palmeiras 2-0 HT 1-0 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BR1
28.08.2023 Palmeiras Palmeiras 1-0 HT 0-0 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BR1
23.04.2023 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 2-2 HT 2-1 Palmeiras Palmeiras BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vasco da Gama
2-1
AWAY Palmeiras
1.50 xG 0.60
50% Ball Possession 50%
17 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
9 Corners 5
369 Passes 371
84% Pass Accuracy 85%
28 Box Touches 17
26 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
REVIEW Vasco da Gama vs Palmeiras
IDDAAKOLIK POST-MATCH REVIEW

Vasco da Gama found just enough to beat Palmeiras 2-1. The 0-1 half-time score told a different story — this one turned on its head late.

The model refused to pick a side here (38% / 26% / 36%); Vasco da Gama picked one for it. We had also flagged both teams to score (55%), and that read landed as well.

By the numbers, possession split 50% to 50% in Vasco da Gama's favour, shots finished 17-8, expected goals 1.50 to 0.60.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Palmeiras led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Scoring in those meetings ran 0.33 a game for Vasco da Gama against 1.67 for Palmeiras.

Vasco da Gama vs Palmeiras Result & Final Score

Vasco da Gama 2-1 Palmeiras in the Brazil - Serie A on 13/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

Vasco da Gama vs Palmeiras Prediction vs Result

Before kick-off our model rated a Vasco da Gama win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Vasco da Gama 38%, draw 26%, Palmeiras 36%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Vasco da Gama), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Vasco da Gama) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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