Caernarfon Town 2-4 Connahs Quay — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - Premier League, 13 Mar 2026

📅13/03/2026 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 1-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
2.53
Draw
19%
3.45
Away
50%
2.32
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.07
Over 2.5
56%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.6
No
46%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
3.68
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
31%
2.98
6+ Goals
10%
9.79
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 2.98 — our 31% vs market 26.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
11%
1/X
7%
X/1
8%
X/2
15%
X/X
6%
2/1
6%
2/2
24%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
36%
-4.4pp
19%
Draw
25%
-6.4pp
50%
Away Win
39%
+10.9pp
44%
Under 2.5
44%
-0.7pp
56%
Over 2.5
56%
+0.7pp
54%
BTTS Yes
58%
-4.5pp
46%
BTTS No
42%
+4.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Caernarfon Town EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Connahs Quay EU Bookmakers 43%
+10% / +19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / -5%
2.11/1.33 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.45/0.96
+62% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / +31%
46% Ball Possession 54%
8 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
287 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 335 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Caernarfon Town
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Connahs Quay
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 2
06.02.2026 Connahs Quay Connahs Quay 1-1 HT 1-0 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town GAL
13.01.2026 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town 2-2 HT 1-1 Connahs Quay Connahs Quay GAL
23.09.2025 Connahs Quay Connahs Quay 1-2 HT 0-1 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town GAL
03.12.2024 Connahs Quay Connahs Quay 1-1 HT 1-0 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town GAL
28.09.2024 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town 3-1 HT 2-0 Connahs Quay Connahs Quay GAL
17.09.2024 Connahs Quay Connahs Quay 3-2 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town GALLK
POST-MATCH Caernarfon Town vs Connahs Quay
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Connahs Quay saw off Caernarfon Town 4-2 away from home. Half-time: 1-2. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Connahs Quay as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (56%), and that read landed as well.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Caernarfon Town had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Caernarfon Town and 1.50 for Connahs Quay.

What was the final score of Caernarfon Town vs Connahs Quay?

Caernarfon Town 2-4 Connahs Quay in the Wales - Premier League on 13/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Caernarfon Town vs Connahs Quay?

Before kick-off our model rated an Connahs Quay win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Caernarfon Town 31%, draw 19%, Connahs Quay 50%. The final score 2-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Connahs Quay), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Connahs Quay) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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