Lugano 1-1 St. Gallen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland - Super League, 13 Apr 2025

📅13/04/2025 · 🕒15:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.96
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
28%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.15
Over 2.5
56%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.56
No
43%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
4.34
2-3 Goals
40%
1.93
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
30%
3.07
6+ Goals
11%
9.37
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.07 — our 30% vs market 27.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
2.72
1/2
5%
31.5
1/X
6%
12.8
X/1
12%
5.0
X/2
10%
7.55
X/X
11%
5.45
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
22.45
2/2
13%
5.14
2/X
8%
13.5
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.45 — our 8% vs market 2.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
47%
+0.3pp
25%
Draw
25%
-0.3pp
28%
Away Win
28%
+0.0pp
44%
Under 2.5
43%
+0.8pp
56%
Over 2.5
57%
-0.8pp
57%
BTTS Yes
60%
-2.5pp
43%
BTTS No
40%
+2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lugano EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY St. Gallen EU Bookmakers 32%
-3% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +22%
1.43/1.06 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.41/1.40
-10% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / +10%
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 4
343 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 253 · 74%
23.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.5
18.3 Crosses 14.8
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lugano
3W-1D-2L
AWAY St. Gallen
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.27 xG 1.34
63% Ball Possession 37%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
449 Passes 221
84% Pass Accuracy 74%
25 Box Touches 20
22 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 2
05.02.2025 St. Gallen St. Gallen 2-1 HT 0-1 Lugano Lugano İSV
01.09.2024 Lugano Lugano 1-1 HT 1-1 St. Gallen St. Gallen İSV
04.05.2024 Lugano Lugano 0-1 HT 0-1 St. Gallen St. Gallen İSV
09.03.2024 St. Gallen St. Gallen 2-3 HT 2-1 Lugano Lugano İSV
28.01.2024 St. Gallen St. Gallen 1-4 HT 0-1 Lugano Lugano İSV
29.07.2023 Lugano Lugano 1-0 HT 0-0 St. Gallen St. Gallen İSV
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lugano
1-1
AWAY St. Gallen
2.50 xG 1.05
57% Ball Possession 43%
9 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 9
394 Passes 272
81% Pass Accuracy 77%
21 Box Touches 25
14 Crosses 24
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Lugano vs St. Gallen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lugano and St. Gallen couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Lugano at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, both teams to score (57%) landed while over 2.5 goals (56%) missed.

On the day, Lugano had 57% of the ball to St. Gallen's 43%, shots finished 9-12, expected goals 2.50 to 1.05.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lugano had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Lugano and 1.17 for St. Gallen.

What was the final score of Lugano vs St. Gallen?

Lugano 1-1 St. Gallen in the Switzerland - Super League on 13/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lugano vs St. Gallen?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lugano win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Lugano 47%, draw 25%, St. Gallen 28%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Lugano), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Lugano) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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