Rijeka 1-0 NK Varazdin — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 13 Apr 2025

📅13/04/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.61
Draw
28%
3.54
Away
19%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.56
Over 2.5
41%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.33
No
58%
1.53
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2.3
2-3 Goals
40%
1.75
4-5 Goals
16%
4.8
6+ Goals
10%
28.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
24%
X/2
7%
X/X
17%
2/1
4%
2/2
7%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★★ BTTS No ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
58%
-4.8pp
28%
Draw
25%
+3.1pp
18%
Away Win
17%
+1.8pp
59%
Under 2.5
60%
-1.5pp
41%
Over 2.5
40%
+1.5pp
42%
BTTS Yes
39%
+3.1pp
58%
BTTS No
61%
-3.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Rijeka EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY NK Varazdin EU Bookmakers 20%
+0% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +7%
1.54/0.85 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/1.17
+23% / +16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +11% / +28%
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 4
390 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 248 · 73%
24.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.2
21.2 Crosses 11.8
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Rijeka
2W-2D-2L
AWAY NK Varazdin
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
0.92 xG 0.78
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 3
328 Passes 277
77% Pass Accuracy 74%
20 Box Touches 10
18 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 2
01.02.2025 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin 1-0 HT 1-0 Rijeka Rijeka HIR
26.10.2024 Rijeka Rijeka 1-1 HT 1-1 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin HIR
11.08.2024 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin 0-0 HT 0-0 Rijeka Rijeka HIR
11.05.2024 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin 3-1 HT 2-1 Rijeka Rijeka HIR
03.03.2024 Rijeka Rijeka 2-0 HT 0-0 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin HIR
25.11.2023 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin 0-2 HT 0-1 Rijeka Rijeka HIR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Rijeka
1-0
AWAY NK Varazdin
0.85 xG 0.53
37% Ball Possession 63%
12 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 6
227 Passes 461
71% Pass Accuracy 86%
15 Box Touches 23
15 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Rijeka vs NK Varazdin
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Rijeka squeezed past NK Varazdin 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Rijeka as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (58%) came in.

On the day, Rijeka had 37% of the ball to NK Varazdin's 63%, shots finished 12-11, expected goals 0.85 to 0.53.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Rijeka and 0.83 for NK Varazdin.

What was the final score of Rijeka vs NK Varazdin?

Rijeka 1-0 NK Varazdin in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 13/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Rijeka vs NK Varazdin?

Before kick-off our model rated a Rijeka win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Rijeka 53%, draw 28%, NK Varazdin 18%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Rijeka), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Rijeka) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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