New Mexico United 1-0 North Carolina — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 13 Apr 2025

📅13/04/2025 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.02
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
34%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.82
Over 2.5
44%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.75
No
54%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
34%
3.1
2-3 Goals
37%
1.75
4-5 Goals
21%
3.5
6+ Goals
8%
14.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.1 — our 34% vs market 25.6%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
9%
1/X
8%
X/1
17%
X/2
10%
X/X
11%
2/1
7%
2/2
15%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
46%
-4.9pp
25%
Draw
26%
-1.1pp
34%
Away Win
28%
+5.9pp
56%
Under 2.5
51%
+5.2pp
44%
Over 2.5
49%
-5.2pp
46%
BTTS Yes
53%
-7.4pp
54%
BTTS No
47%
+7.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME New Mexico United EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY North Carolina EU Bookmakers 32%
-2% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +3%
1.30/1.15 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/1.15
-3% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -25% / +27%
51% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
337 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 316 · 76%
20.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.7
15.8 Crosses 14.8
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME New Mexico United
1W-0D-0L
AWAY North Carolina
3.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
21.04.2024 North Carolina North Carolina 2-3 HT 2-2 New Mexico United New Mexico United USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME New Mexico United
1-0
AWAY North Carolina
2.03 xG 1.30
77% Ball Possession 23%
12 Total Shots 9
2 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 6
567 Passes 119
89% Pass Accuracy 66%
26 Box Touches 15
12 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH New Mexico United vs North Carolina
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

New Mexico United squeezed past North Carolina 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had New Mexico United as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, New Mexico United had 77% of the ball to North Carolina's 23%, shots finished 12-9, expected goals 2.03 to 1.30.

What was the final score of New Mexico United vs North Carolina?

New Mexico United 1-0 North Carolina in the USL Championship on 13/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for New Mexico United vs North Carolina?

Before kick-off our model rated a New Mexico United win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split New Mexico United 41%, draw 25%, North Carolina 34%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (New Mexico United), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (New Mexico United) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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