Tampa Bay Rowdies 1-2 Loudoun United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 13 Apr 2025

📅13/04/2025 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
1.92
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
32%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.86
Over 2.5
49%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.75
No
48%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.17
2-3 Goals
39%
1.76
4-5 Goals
22%
3.43
6+ Goals
10%
13.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.17 — our 29% vs market 25.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
7%
1/X
11%
X/1
12%
X/2
11%
X/X
10%
2/1
10%
2/2
14%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
48%
-6.6pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.4pp
32%
Away Win
26%
+6.1pp
51%
Under 2.5
50%
+1.1pp
49%
Over 2.5
50%
-1.1pp
52%
BTTS Yes
53%
-1.6pp
48%
BTTS No
47%
+1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tampa Bay Rowdies EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Loudoun United EU Bookmakers 29%
+1% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -3%
1.45/1.11 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.19/1.47
+13% / -18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / -17%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
329 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 338 · 79%
19.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.5
15.8 Crosses 14.7
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tampa Bay Rowdies
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Loudoun United
2.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.98 xG 1.38
52% Ball Possession 48%
16 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
384 Passes 339
85% Pass Accuracy 80%
28 Box Touches 19
22 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 3
18.08.2024 Tampa Bay Rowdies Tampa Bay Rowdies 0-2 HT 0-1 Loudoun United Loudoun United USLP
30.06.2024 Loudoun United Loudoun United 2-0 HT 1-0 Tampa Bay Rowdies Tampa Bay Rowdies USLP
01.10.2023 Tampa Bay Rowdies Tampa Bay Rowdies 1-0 HT 1-0 Loudoun United Loudoun United USLP
25.06.2023 Loudoun United Loudoun United 2-4 HT 1-1 Tampa Bay Rowdies Tampa Bay Rowdies USLP
09.10.2022 Tampa Bay Rowdies Tampa Bay Rowdies 8-0 HT 3-0 Loudoun United Loudoun United USLP
17.07.2022 Loudoun United Loudoun United 1-4 HT 0-0 Tampa Bay Rowdies Tampa Bay Rowdies USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Tampa Bay Rowdies
1-2
AWAY Loudoun United
0.99 xG 2.78
51% Ball Possession 49%
15 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 8
342 Passes 325
82% Pass Accuracy 79%
19 Box Touches 22
25 Crosses 17
4 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Loudoun United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Loudoun United nicked a narrow win over Tampa Bay Rowdies 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Tampa Bay Rowdies at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Tampa Bay Rowdies had 51% of the ball to Loudoun United's 49%, shots finished 15-14, expected goals 0.99 to 2.78 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Loudoun United's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Tampa Bay Rowdies had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 2.83 goals for Tampa Bay Rowdies and 1.17 for Loudoun United.

What was the final score of Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Loudoun United?

Tampa Bay Rowdies 1-2 Loudoun United in the USL Championship on 13/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Loudoun United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Tampa Bay Rowdies win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Tampa Bay Rowdies 41%, draw 27%, Loudoun United 32%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Tampa Bay Rowdies), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Tampa Bay Rowdies) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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