Modena 0-1 Cesena — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie B, 13 May 2025

📅13/05/2025 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.99
Draw
34%
2.94
Away
33%
2.32
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.64
Over 2.5
39%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.88
No
53%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
35%
2.59
2-3 Goals
38%
1.73
4-5 Goals
20%
4.17
6+ Goals
7%
20.95
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.59 — our 35% vs market 31.3%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
6%
1/X
5%
X/1
14%
X/2
9%
X/X
18%
2/1
7%
2/2
18%
2/X
11%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Draw ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
30%
+3.3pp
34%
Draw
31%
+3.3pp
33%
Away Win
39%
-6.6pp
61%
Under 2.5
57%
+3.9pp
39%
Over 2.5
43%
-3.9pp
47%
BTTS Yes
49%
-2.0pp
53%
BTTS No
51%
+2.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Modena EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Cesena EU Bookmakers 43%
-4% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -10%
1.03/1.23 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.98/0.87
+7% / -20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +30% / -28%
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
246 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 360 · 80%
19.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.5
18.5 Crosses 16.5
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Modena
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Cesena
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
2.18 xG 1.55
48% Ball Possession 52%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 2
273 Passes 461
75% Pass Accuracy 87%
25 Box Touches 21
11 Crosses 26
2 Yellow Cards 2
13.09.2024 Cesena Cesena 2-2 HT 2-1 Modena Modena İTB
07.02.2022 Modena Modena 1-0 HT 1-0 Cesena Cesena İTC
28.09.2021 Cesena Cesena 1-2 HT 1-1 Modena Modena İTC
21.03.2021 Modena Modena 1-0 HT 0-0 Cesena Cesena İTC
29.11.2020 Cesena Cesena 0-0 HT 0-0 Modena Modena İTC
24.11.2019 Cesena Cesena 1-0 HT 1-0 Modena Modena İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Modena
0-1
AWAY Cesena
0.81 xG 0.76
65% Ball Possession 35%
10 Total Shots 5
2 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 1
569 Passes 270
89% Pass Accuracy 78%
27 Box Touches 13
18 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Modena vs Cesena
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cesena edged past Modena 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (33% / 34% / 33%) promised a tight game; Cesena found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (61%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Modena had 65% of the ball to Cesena's 35%, shots finished 10-5, expected goals 0.81 to 0.76.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Modena had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Modena and 0.67 for Cesena.

What was the final score of Modena vs Cesena?

Modena 0-1 Cesena in the Italy - Serie B on 13/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Modena vs Cesena?

Before kick-off our model rated a draw the most likely single outcome at about 34%, with the full match-result split Modena 33%, draw 34%, Cesena 33%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Draw) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Draw) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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