FS Jelgava vs Metta / LU Riga Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
FS Jelgava v Metta / LU Riga — Team-Based Signals
FS Jelgava vs Metta / LU Riga Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
0-1
HT 0-0
FS Jelgava
LET
FS Jelgava 2-1 Metta / LU Riga — Actual Match Statistics
FS Jelgava squeezed past Metta / LU Riga 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had FS Jelgava as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.
On the day, FS Jelgava had 61% of the ball to Metta / LU Riga's 39%, shots finished 26-4, expected goals 2.04 to 0.51 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold FS Jelgava's control.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Metta / LU Riga led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for FS Jelgava and 1.00 for Metta / LU Riga.
What was the final score of FS Jelgava vs Metta / LU Riga?
FS Jelgava 2-1 Metta / LU Riga in the Latvia - Virsliga on 13/06/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for FS Jelgava vs Metta / LU Riga?
Before kick-off our model rated a FS Jelgava win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split FS Jelgava 54%, draw 24%, Metta / LU Riga 21%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (FS Jelgava), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.