Miami FC 1-1 Lexington — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 13 Jul 2025

Miami FC
1-1 HT 1-0
Lexington
📅13/07/2025 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
USL Championship – 2025

Miami FC vs Lexington Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.27
Draw
24%
3.45
Away
36%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.97
Over 2.5
47%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.63
No
52%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.49
2-3 Goals
39%
1.79
4-5 Goals
21%
3.19
6+ Goals
10%
11.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.49 — our 30% vs market 22.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
16%
X/2
14%
X/X
11%
2/1
6%
2/2
15%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
40%
-0.1pp
25%
Draw
26%
-1.0pp
36%
Away Win
34%
+1.1pp
53%
Under 2.5
47%
+6.3pp
47%
Over 2.5
53%
-6.3pp
48%
BTTS Yes
57%
-9.6pp
52%
BTTS No
43%
+9.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Miami FC v Lexington — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Miami FC EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Lexington EU Bookmakers 38%
-15% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -47% / -47%
1.04/1.06 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.53/2.47
-21% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -28% / -38%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
327 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 350 · 79%
17.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.0
16.2 Crosses 21.0
2.5 Yellow Cards 4.0

Miami FC 1-1 Lexington — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Miami FC
1-1
AWAY Lexington
0.87 xG 1.33
37% Ball Possession 63%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 8
200 Passes 379
73% Pass Accuracy 84%
19 Box Touches 27
6 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Miami FC vs Lexington
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Miami FC and Lexington couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match split (40% / 25% / 36%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Miami FC had 37% of the ball to Lexington's 63%, shots finished 12-10, expected goals 0.87 to 1.33.

What was the final score of Miami FC vs Lexington?

Miami FC 1-1 Lexington in the USL Championship on 13/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Miami FC vs Lexington?

Before kick-off our model rated a Miami FC win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Miami FC 40%, draw 25%, Lexington 36%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Miami FC), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Miami FC) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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