FC Tulsa 4-3 Las Vegas Lights — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 13 Jul 2025

📅13/07/2025 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.57
Draw
28%
3.72
Away
22%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.78
Over 2.5
41%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.99
No
58%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
35%
2.94
2-3 Goals
39%
1.74
4-5 Goals
17%
3.66
6+ Goals
9%
15.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.94 — our 35% vs market 27.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
7%
1/X
9%
X/1
20%
X/2
9%
X/X
14%
2/1
8%
2/2
7%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
59%
-9.7pp
28%
Draw
23%
+4.7pp
22%
Away Win
17%
+5.0pp
59%
Under 2.5
52%
+6.9pp
41%
Over 2.5
48%
-6.9pp
42%
BTTS Yes
46%
-4.5pp
58%
BTTS No
54%
+4.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FC Tulsa EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Las Vegas Lights EU Bookmakers 21%
+10% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +9%
1.73/1.15 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/1.70
+3% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / -5%
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
358 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 276 · 74%
25.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.8
19.4 Crosses 13.6
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FC Tulsa
2W-4D-0L
AWAY Las Vegas Lights
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.14 xG 1.33
42% Ball Possession 58%
10 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 4
222 Passes 334
72% Pass Accuracy 78%
16 Box Touches 20
14 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
20.04.2025 Las Vegas Lights Las Vegas Lights 1-4 HT 0-3 FC Tulsa FC Tulsa USLP
12.09.2024 FC Tulsa FC Tulsa 1-1 HT 1-0 Las Vegas Lights Las Vegas Lights USLP
17.03.2024 Las Vegas Lights Las Vegas Lights 1-3 HT 0-2 FC Tulsa FC Tulsa USLP
14.05.2023 Las Vegas Lights Las Vegas Lights 1-1 HT 0-0 FC Tulsa FC Tulsa USLP
29.08.2019 FC Tulsa FC Tulsa 1-1 HT 0-0 Las Vegas Lights Las Vegas Lights USLP
26.05.2019 Las Vegas Lights Las Vegas Lights 0-0 HT 0-0 FC Tulsa FC Tulsa USLP
POST-MATCH FC Tulsa vs Las Vegas Lights
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FC Tulsa nicked a narrow win over Las Vegas Lights 4-3. The game was level at 2-2 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had FC Tulsa as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 4-3 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, FC Tulsa had the better of it with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for FC Tulsa and 0.83 for Las Vegas Lights.

What was the final score of FC Tulsa vs Las Vegas Lights?

FC Tulsa 4-3 Las Vegas Lights in the USL Championship on 13/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FC Tulsa vs Las Vegas Lights?

Before kick-off our model rated a FC Tulsa win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split FC Tulsa 50%, draw 28%, Las Vegas Lights 22%. The final score 4-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (FC Tulsa) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (FC Tulsa) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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