Racing Club Montevideo 1-1 CA Penarol — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uruguay - Premier League, 13 Jul 2026

📅13/07/2026 · 🕒00:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
2.99
Draw
30%
3.04
Away
42%
2.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
Over 2.5
44%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
2.09
No
51%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
1/2
7%
1/X
4%
X/1
11%
X/2
9%
X/X
13%
2/1
7%
2/2
27%
2/X
12%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
30%
-1.9pp
30%
Draw
29%
+0.3pp
42%
Away Win
41%
+1.6pp
49%
BTTS Yes
44%
+5.1pp
51%
BTTS No
56%
-5.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Racing Club Montevideo EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY CA Penarol EU Bookmakers 45%
+1% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +13%
1.20/0.75 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.59/0.92
+8% / +55% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +24% / +15%
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
377 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 254 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses 16.0
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Racing Club Montevideo
2W-2D-2L
AWAY CA Penarol
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
41% Ball Possession 59%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
3 Yellow Cards 2
30.03.2026 CA Penarol CA Penarol 1-2 HT 0-1 Racing Club Montevideo Racing Club Montevideo URU
01.09.2025 Racing Club Montevideo Racing Club Montevideo 1-4 HT 1-2 CA Penarol CA Penarol URU
10.03.2025 CA Penarol CA Penarol 0-2 HT 0-1 Racing Club Montevideo Racing Club Montevideo URU
01.10.2024 CA Penarol CA Penarol 0-0 HT 0-0 Racing Club Montevideo Racing Club Montevideo URU
17.06.2024 CA Penarol CA Penarol 1-1 HT 0-0 Racing Club Montevideo Racing Club Montevideo URU
17.03.2024 Racing Club Montevideo Racing Club Montevideo 1-2 HT 0-2 CA Penarol CA Penarol URU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Racing Club Montevideo
1-1
AWAY CA Penarol
11 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 2
2 Corners 4
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Racing Club Montevideo vs CA Penarol
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Racing Club Montevideo and CA Penarol couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was CA Penarol at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, shots finished 11-12.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Racing Club Montevideo and 1.33 for CA Penarol.

What was the final score of Racing Club Montevideo vs CA Penarol?

Racing Club Montevideo 1-1 CA Penarol in the Uruguay - Premier League on 13/07/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Racing Club Montevideo vs CA Penarol?

Before kick-off our model rated an CA Penarol win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Racing Club Montevideo 28%, draw 30%, CA Penarol 42%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (CA Penarol), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (CA Penarol) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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