Benfica U23 4-1 Estrela U23 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - U23 National Championship, 13 Sep 2025

📅13/09/2025 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
68%
1.32
Draw
12%
4.81
Away
20%
7.18
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
34%
Over 2.5
66%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.82
No
46%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
17%
2-3 Goals
45%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
13%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
57%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
8%
X/2
11%
X/X
3%
2/1
4%
2/2
3%
2/X
3%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
68%
Home Win
71%
-3.0pp
12%
Draw
18%
-5.4pp
19%
Away Win
11%
+8.4pp
54%
BTTS Yes
51%
+3.3pp
46%
BTTS No
49%
-3.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Benfica U23 EU Bookmakers 76%
Head to Head
AWAY Estrela U23 EU Bookmakers 14%
+21% / +21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +11%
4.27/0.62 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.32/2.81
+150% / +33% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -61% / -29%
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
372 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 346 · 82%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.4 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Benfica U23
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Estrela U23
2.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
60% Ball Possession 40%
14 Total Shots 7
7 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 1
09.04.2025 Estrela U23 Estrela U23 2-3 Benfica U23 Benfica U23 PORU23
29.01.2025 Benfica U23 Benfica U23 0-0 HT 0-0 Estrela U23 Estrela U23 PORU23
17.12.2024 Benfica U23 Benfica U23 7-0 Estrela U23 Estrela U23 UŞGB
28.09.2024 Estrela U23 Estrela U23 1-0 Benfica U23 Benfica U23 UŞGB
25.04.2024 Estrela U23 Estrela U23 0-4 HT 0-2 Benfica U23 Benfica U23 PORU23
20.02.2024 Benfica U23 Benfica U23 2-2 HT 1-2 Estrela U23 Estrela U23 PORU23
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Benfica U23
4-1
AWAY Estrela U23
61% Ball Possession 39%
19 Total Shots 10
10 Shots on Target 3
19 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Benfica U23 vs Estrela U23
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Benfica U23 ran out comfortable winners over Estrela U23 4-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Benfica U23 as the likeliest winner at 68%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (66%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Benfica U23 had 61% of the ball to Estrela U23's 39%, shots finished 19-10.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Benfica U23 had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.67 goals for Benfica U23 and 0.83 for Estrela U23.

What was the final score of Benfica U23 vs Estrela U23?

Benfica U23 4-1 Estrela U23 in the Portugal - U23 National Championship on 13/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Benfica U23 vs Estrela U23?

Before kick-off our model rated a Benfica U23 win the most likely single outcome at about 68%, with the full match-result split Benfica U23 68%, draw 12%, Estrela U23 19%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Benfica U23), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Benfica U23) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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