Finn Harps 1-1 Kerry — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ireland - 1st Division, 13 Oct 2025

📅13/10/2025 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.46
Draw
31%
3.18
Away
32%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.82
Over 2.5
41%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.7
No
51%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
3.1
2-3 Goals
43%
1.74
4-5 Goals
17%
3.45
6+ Goals
9%
13.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.1 — our 31% vs market 25.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
17%
X/2
12%
X/X
16%
2/1
6%
2/2
15%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
37%
+0.2pp
30%
Draw
28%
+2.2pp
32%
Away Win
35%
-2.4pp
59%
Under 2.5
51%
+7.6pp
41%
Over 2.5
49%
-7.6pp
49%
BTTS Yes
55%
-5.9pp
51%
BTTS No
45%
+5.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Finn Harps EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Kerry EU Bookmakers 38%
-14% / -20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -33% / -33%
1.01/1.34 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.87/2.74
-26% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +41% / -56%
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
232 · 69% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 319 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.8 Yellow Cards 4.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Finn Harps
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Kerry
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
55% Ball Possession 44%
12 Total Shots 9
8 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 2
08.08.2025 Kerry 0-1 HT 0-0 Finn Harps Finn Harps İR1
18.04.2025 Finn Harps Finn Harps 4-2 HT 1-2 Kerry İR1
14.02.2025 Kerry 2-0 HT 1-0 Finn Harps Finn Harps İR1
27.09.2024 Kerry 1-1 HT 0-0 Finn Harps Finn Harps İR1
04.07.2024 Finn Harps Finn Harps 1-0 HT 1-0 Kerry İR1
24.05.2024 Kerry 2-0 HT 0-0 Finn Harps Finn Harps İR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Finn Harps
1-1
AWAY Kerry
52% Ball Possession 48%
4 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 1
1 Corners 4
POST-MATCH Finn Harps vs Kerry
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Finn Harps and Kerry couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 30% / 32% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (59%) came in.

On the day, Finn Harps had 52% of the ball to Kerry's 48%, shots finished 4-9.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Finn Harps had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Finn Harps and 1.17 for Kerry.

What was the final score of Finn Harps vs Kerry?

Finn Harps 1-1 Kerry in the Ireland - 1st Division on 13/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Finn Harps vs Kerry?

Before kick-off our model rated a Finn Harps win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Finn Harps 37%, draw 30%, Kerry 32%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Finn Harps), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Finn Harps) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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