Stoke City vs Swansea City Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Stoke City v Swansea City — Team-Based Signals
Stoke City vs Swansea City Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-1
HT 0-0
Swansea City
İNCL
1-3
HT 1-2
Stoke City
İNCL
1-1
HT 0-1
Swansea City
İNCL
Stoke City 2-1 Swansea City — Actual Match Statistics
Stoke City squeezed past Swansea City 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.
As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Stoke City as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Stoke City had 41% of the ball to Swansea City's 59%, shots finished 8-14, expected goals 0.46 to 1.25 — on chances, Swansea City could feel hard done by.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Stoke City had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Stoke City and 1.17 for Swansea City.
What was the final score of Stoke City vs Swansea City?
Stoke City 2-1 Swansea City in the England - Championship on 13/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Stoke City vs Swansea City?
Before kick-off our model rated a Stoke City win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Stoke City 46%, draw 30%, Swansea City 24%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Stoke City) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.