PSV Eindhoven 4-3 Heracles — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 13 Dec 2025

📅13/12/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
85%
1.16
Draw
9%
7.78
Away
6%
10.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
26%
1.0
Over 2.5
74%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.7
No
45%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
14%
11.75
2-3 Goals
34%
2.81
4-5 Goals
35%
2.28
6+ Goals
17%
2.89
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
51%
1.21
1/2
2%
35.0
1/X
3%
30.0
X/1
22%
4.31
X/2
2%
35.0
X/X
3%
15.9
2/1 EV+ ✗
12%
18.65
2/2
2%
27.5
2/X
3%
35.0
Value flag · 2/1 at 18.65 — our 12% vs market 2.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
86%
Home Win
82%
+3.0pp
9%
Draw
10%
-1.7pp
6%
Away Win
7%
-1.4pp
55%
BTTS Yes
55%
+0.7pp
45%
BTTS No
45%
-0.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME PSV Eindhoven EU Bookmakers 87%
Head to Head
AWAY Heracles EU Bookmakers 9%
+1% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -10%
2.81/0.78 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.61/2.52
+27% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -48% / -6%
61% Ball Possession 39%
20 Total Shots 7
9 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 3
498 · 86% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 274 · 76%
45.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.1
25.1 Crosses 12.8
0.8 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME PSV Eindhoven
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Heracles
3.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
3.26 xG 0.73
70% Ball Possession 30%
28 Total Shots 5
10 Shots on Target 2
10 Corners 2
612 Passes 210
90% Pass Accuracy 72%
51 Box Touches 11
28 Crosses 8
0 Yellow Cards 2
14.05.2025 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven 4-1 HT 4-0 Heracles Heracles HOL
18.08.2024 Heracles Heracles 1-3 HT 1-0 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven HOL
16.02.2024 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven 2-0 HT 1-0 Heracles Heracles HOL
07.01.2024 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven 1-1 HT 1-0 Heracles Heracles HAZ
04.11.2023 Heracles Heracles 0-6 HT 0-2 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven HOL
06.03.2022 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven 3-1 HT 1-0 Heracles Heracles HOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME PSV Eindhoven
4-3
AWAY Heracles
3.27 xG 2.81
66% Ball Possession 34%
21 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 6
10 Corners 4
487 Passes 216
89% Pass Accuracy 76%
47 Box Touches 19
28 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH PSV Eindhoven vs Heracles
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

PSV Eindhoven squeezed past Heracles 4-3. Half-time: 2-1. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had PSV Eindhoven as the likeliest winner at 86%, and the 4-3 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (74%), both teams to score (55%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, PSV Eindhoven had 66% of the ball to Heracles's 34%, shots finished 21-11, expected goals 3.27 to 2.81.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, PSV Eindhoven had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 3.17 goals for PSV Eindhoven and 0.67 for Heracles.

What was the final score of PSV Eindhoven vs Heracles?

PSV Eindhoven 4-3 Heracles in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 13/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for PSV Eindhoven vs Heracles?

Before kick-off our model rated a PSV Eindhoven win the most likely single outcome at about 86%, with the full match-result split PSV Eindhoven 86%, draw 9%, Heracles 6%. The final score 4-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (PSV Eindhoven), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (PSV Eindhoven) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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