PSV Eindhoven 4-1 Heracles — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 14 May 2025

📅14/05/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 4-0 2nd Score 3-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
69%
1.16
Draw
18%
7.78
Away
13%
10.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
32%
1.0
Over 2.5
68%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.75
No
48%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
17%
14.35
2-3 Goals
31%
3.12
4-5 Goals
35%
2.25
6+ Goals
17%
2.41
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
46%
1.14
1/2
4%
35.0
1/X
6%
35.0
X/1
17%
4.46
X/2
4%
35.0
X/X
8%
19.5
2/1
6%
19.5
2/2
5%
35.0
2/X
4%
35.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
70%
Home Win
82%
-13.0pp
18%
Draw
10%
+7.1pp
13%
Away Win
7%
+5.9pp
52%
BTTS Yes
53%
-1.5pp
48%
BTTS No
47%
+1.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME PSV Eindhoven EU Bookmakers 87%
Head to Head
AWAY Heracles EU Bookmakers 9%
+2% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -9%
2.88/0.78 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.64/2.51
+24% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -43% / +1%
61% Ball Possession 39%
19 Total Shots 8
8 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 3
498 · 86% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 275 · 75%
44.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.5
25.5 Crosses 13.3
0.8 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME PSV Eindhoven
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Heracles
2.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
2.86 xG 0.69
69% Ball Possession 31%
26 Total Shots 6
9 Shots on Target 2
10 Corners 2
612 Passes 218
90% Pass Accuracy 71%
49 Box Touches 11
26 Crosses 9
1 Yellow Cards 2
18.08.2024 Heracles Heracles 1-3 HT 1-0 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven HOL
16.02.2024 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven 2-0 HT 1-0 Heracles Heracles HOL
07.01.2024 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven 1-1 HT 1-0 Heracles Heracles HAZ
04.11.2023 Heracles Heracles 0-6 HT 0-2 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven HOL
06.03.2022 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven 3-1 HT 1-0 Heracles Heracles HOL
14.08.2021 Heracles Heracles 0-2 HT 0-1 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven HOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME PSV Eindhoven
4-1
AWAY Heracles
4.11 xG 0.50
68% Ball Possession 32%
30 Total Shots 3
11 Shots on Target 2
10 Corners 1
522 Passes 213
89% Pass Accuracy 76%
49 Box Touches 6
23 Crosses 5
POST-MATCH PSV Eindhoven vs Heracles
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

PSV Eindhoven ran out comfortable winners over Heracles 4-1. Half-time: 4-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had PSV Eindhoven as the likeliest winner at 70%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (68%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, PSV Eindhoven had 68% of the ball to Heracles's 32%, shots finished 30-3, expected goals 4.11 to 0.50.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, PSV Eindhoven had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.83 goals for PSV Eindhoven and 0.50 for Heracles.

What was the final score of PSV Eindhoven vs Heracles?

PSV Eindhoven 4-1 Heracles in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 14/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for PSV Eindhoven vs Heracles?

Before kick-off our model rated a PSV Eindhoven win the most likely single outcome at about 70%, with the full match-result split PSV Eindhoven 70%, draw 18%, Heracles 13%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (PSV Eindhoven), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (PSV Eindhoven) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
HOL More Netherlands - Eredivisie
14 May 2025
21:00 Willem II vs PEC Zwolle Analysis →
21:00 Utrecht vs Sparta Rotterdam Analysis →
21:00 Groningen vs Ajax Analysis →
21:00 NEC Nijmegen vs NAC Breda Analysis →
21:00 Twente vs AZ Alkmaar Analysis →
21:00 Go Ahead Eagles vs Heerenveen Analysis →