NEC Nijmegen 3-0 NAC Breda — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 14 May 2025

NEC Nijmegen
3-0 HT 1-0
NAC Breda
📅14/05/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Netherlands - Eredivisie – 2024/2025

NEC Nijmegen vs NAC Breda Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.45
Draw
27%
4.19
Away
20%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.18
Over 2.5
52%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.81
No
46%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
4.22
2-3 Goals
40%
1.87
4-5 Goals
23%
2.92
6+ Goals
13%
8.64
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1.76
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
6%
16.3
X/1
23%
4.07
X/2
8%
13.75
X/X
14%
6.47
2/1 EV+ ✗
11%
21.65
2/2
8%
11.2
2/X
7%
18.85
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.65 — our 11% vs market 2.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
65%
-12.2pp
27%
Draw
21%
+6.6pp
20%
Away Win
15%
+5.6pp
48%
Under 2.5
42%
+5.8pp
52%
Over 2.5
58%
-5.8pp
54%
BTTS Yes
51%
+2.2pp
46%
BTTS No
49%
-2.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

NEC Nijmegen v NAC Breda — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME NEC Nijmegen EU Bookmakers 69%
Head to Head
AWAY NAC Breda EU Bookmakers 18%
-12% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +0%
1.69/0.94 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.05/1.91
-1% / -28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -18% / +8%
55% Ball Possession 45%
18 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
365 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 280 · 73%
25.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.1
25.4 Crosses 13.6
1.4 Yellow Cards 2.1

NEC Nijmegen vs NAC Breda Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME NEC Nijmegen
2W-1D-3L
AWAY NAC Breda
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.84 xG 1.41
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 6
300 Passes 365
76% Pass Accuracy 80%
16 Box Touches 26
16 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
05.10.2024 NAC Breda NAC Breda 1-0 HT 0-0 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HOL
23.05.2021 NAC Breda NAC Breda 1-2 HT 0-1 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HOL2
03.05.2021 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 0-2 HT 0-2 NAC Breda NAC Breda HOL2
30.10.2020 NAC Breda NAC Breda 0-1 HT 0-1 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HOL2
28.02.2020 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 1-1 HT 0-0 NAC Breda NAC Breda HOL2
04.10.2019 NAC Breda NAC Breda 1-0 HT 0-0 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HOL2

NEC Nijmegen 3-0 NAC Breda — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME NEC Nijmegen
3-0
AWAY NAC Breda
2.10 xG 0.68
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 0
3 Corners 5
371 Passes 466
83% Pass Accuracy 87%
17 Box Touches 14
19 Crosses 22
POST-MATCH NEC Nijmegen vs NAC Breda
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

NEC Nijmegen cruised past NAC Breda 3-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had NEC Nijmegen as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, NEC Nijmegen had 45% of the ball to NAC Breda's 55%, shots finished 11-9, expected goals 2.10 to 0.68.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, NAC Breda led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for NEC Nijmegen and 1.00 for NAC Breda.

What was the final score of NEC Nijmegen vs NAC Breda?

NEC Nijmegen 3-0 NAC Breda in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 14/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for NEC Nijmegen vs NAC Breda?

Before kick-off our model rated a NEC Nijmegen win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split NEC Nijmegen 52%, draw 27%, NAC Breda 20%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (NEC Nijmegen), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (NEC Nijmegen) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
HOL More Netherlands - Eredivisie
14 May 2025
21:00 Willem II vs PEC Zwolle Analysis →
21:00 Utrecht vs Sparta Rotterdam Analysis →
21:00 Groningen vs Ajax Analysis →
21:00 PSV Eindhoven vs Heracles Analysis →
21:00 Twente vs AZ Alkmaar Analysis →
21:00 Go Ahead Eagles vs Heerenveen Analysis →