Willem II 1-2 PEC Zwolle — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 14 May 2025

Willem II
1-2 HT 0-1
PEC Zwolle
📅14/05/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✓ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Netherlands - Eredivisie – 2024/2025

Willem II vs PEC Zwolle Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.67
Draw
23%
3.28
Away
42%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
1.97
Over 2.5
55%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.63
No
45%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.58
2-3 Goals
40%
1.81
4-5 Goals
24%
3.25
6+ Goals
12%
11.4
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
4.22
1/2
6%
26.0
1/X
6%
12.7
X/1
10%
6.39
X/2
18%
5.55
X/X
11%
4.83
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
29.0
2/2
18%
3.39
2/X
6%
12.45
Value flag · 2/1 at 29.0 — our 9% vs market 1.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
34%
+0.8pp
23%
Draw
27%
-4.5pp
43%
Away Win
39%
+3.6pp
45%
Under 2.5
47%
-1.4pp
55%
Over 2.5
53%
+1.4pp
55%
BTTS Yes
57%
-2.5pp
45%
BTTS No
43%
+2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Willem II v PEC Zwolle — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Willem II EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY PEC Zwolle EU Bookmakers 43%
-12% / -19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +16%
1.06/1.58 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.37/1.39
-14% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +20% / +28%
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
309 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 353 · 78%
19.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.7
22.5 Crosses 18.0
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.5

Willem II vs PEC Zwolle Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Willem II
2W-1D-3L
AWAY PEC Zwolle
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.67 xG 1.89
39% Ball Possession 61%
10 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
233 Passes 430
67% Pass Accuracy 78%
14 Box Touches 27
18 Crosses 22
1 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
13.12.2024 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle 0-1 HT 0-1 Willem II Willem II HOL
10.03.2023 Willem II Willem II 2-3 HT 1-2 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle HOL2
09.09.2022 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle 2-2 HT 2-2 Willem II Willem II HOL2
14.01.2022 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle 2-0 HT 1-0 Willem II Willem II HOL
28.08.2021 Willem II Willem II 1-0 HT 0-0 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle HOL
22.01.2021 Willem II Willem II 1-3 HT 1-0 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle HOL

Willem II 1-2 PEC Zwolle — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Willem II
1-2
AWAY PEC Zwolle
1.00 xG 1.10
42% Ball Possession 58%
15 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 8
252 Passes 404
73% Pass Accuracy 84%
30 Box Touches 30
14 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Willem II vs PEC Zwolle
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

PEC Zwolle edged past Willem II 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Just as the model leaned, our model had PEC Zwolle as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (55%) came in.

On the day, Willem II had 42% of the ball to PEC Zwolle's 58%, shots finished 15-16, expected goals 1.00 to 1.10.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, PEC Zwolle led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Willem II and 1.67 for PEC Zwolle.

What was the final score of Willem II vs PEC Zwolle?

Willem II 1-2 PEC Zwolle in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 14/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Willem II vs PEC Zwolle?

Before kick-off our model rated an PEC Zwolle win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Willem II 35%, draw 23%, PEC Zwolle 43%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (PEC Zwolle), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (PEC Zwolle) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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