Groningen 2-2 Ajax — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 14 May 2025

Groningen
2-2 HT 0-1
Ajax
📅14/05/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-3 ✗ 2nd Score 0-4 ✗
Netherlands - Eredivisie – 2024/2025

Groningen vs Ajax Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
4.65
Draw
24%
3.8
Away
47%
1.6
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.91
Over 2.5
52%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.88
No
53%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
3.29
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals
23%
3.33
6+ Goals
9%
12.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
9.06
1/2
6%
22.9
1/X
6%
18.0
X/1
9%
10.85
X/2
10%
4.0
X/X
10%
5.57
2/1
6%
35.0
2/2
31%
2.02
2/X
8%
16.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
18%
+10.8pp
24%
Draw
23%
+0.9pp
47%
Away Win
58%
-11.8pp
48%
Under 2.5
48%
-0.5pp
52%
Over 2.5
52%
+0.4pp
47%
BTTS Yes
49%
-2.4pp
53%
BTTS No
51%
+2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Groningen v Ajax — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Groningen EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY Ajax EU Bookmakers 62%
+5% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +8%
0.77/1.59 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.13/1.18
-29% / +22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / +2%
43% Ball Possession 57%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 4
281 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 413 · 82%
14.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 34.3
13.7 Crosses 16.6
2.4 Yellow Cards 1.7

Groningen vs Ajax Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Groningen
0W-0D-6L
AWAY Ajax
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 3.50
0.74 xG 3.22
36% Ball Possession 64%
8 Total Shots 20
3 Shots on Target 8
2 Corners 6
242 Passes 494
73% Pass Accuracy 85%
14 Box Touches 47
10 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
06.10.2024 Ajax Ajax 3-1 HT 1-0 Groningen Groningen HOL
16.05.2023 Groningen Groningen 2-3 HT 1-1 Ajax Ajax HOL
14.08.2022 Ajax Ajax 6-1 HT 3-1 Groningen Groningen HOL
02.04.2022 Groningen Groningen 1-3 HT 1-2 Ajax Ajax HOL
25.09.2021 Ajax Ajax 3-0 HT 1-0 Groningen Groningen HOL
07.03.2021 Ajax Ajax 3-1 HT 1-0 Groningen Groningen HOL

Groningen 2-2 Ajax — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Groningen
2-2
AWAY Ajax
1.92 xG 1.10
47% Ball Possession 53%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 3
355 Passes 428
79% Pass Accuracy 82%
16 Box Touches 18
18 Crosses 10
5 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Groningen vs Ajax
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Groningen and Ajax shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Ajax at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Groningen had 47% of the ball to Ajax's 53%, shots finished 14-10, expected goals 1.92 to 1.10.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Ajax led the recent series with 6 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Groningen and 3.50 for Ajax.

What was the final score of Groningen vs Ajax?

Groningen 2-2 Ajax in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 14/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Groningen vs Ajax?

Before kick-off our model rated an Ajax win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Groningen 29%, draw 24%, Ajax 47%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Ajax), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Ajax) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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