Twente 2-3 AZ Alkmaar — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 14 May 2025

📅14/05/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.46
Draw
29%
3.28
Away
32%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.91
Over 2.5
46%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.66
No
50%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.39
2-3 Goals
42%
1.8
4-5 Goals
21%
3.38
6+ Goals
11%
12.65
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.39 — our 26% vs market 23.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
3.7
1/2
6%
28.0
1/X
7%
12.85
X/1
9%
5.75
X/2
16%
5.93
X/X
16%
4.75
2/1
7%
27.5
2/2
9%
3.89
2/X
7%
12.95
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
37%
+2.1pp
29%
Draw
27%
+1.9pp
32%
Away Win
36%
-3.9pp
54%
Under 2.5
48%
+5.8pp
46%
Over 2.5
52%
-5.8pp
50%
BTTS Yes
56%
-6.1pp
50%
BTTS No
44%
+6.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Twente EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY AZ Alkmaar EU Bookmakers 39%
-5% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +12% / +21%
1.65/1.98 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.37/0.88
+28% / -37% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +26% / +38%
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
345 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 373 · 80%
23.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.9
18.5 Crosses 13.4
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Twente
3W-1D-2L
AWAY AZ Alkmaar
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.08 xG 1.14
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
388 Passes 346
78% Pass Accuracy 78%
26 Box Touches 17
21 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 2
21.12.2024 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 1-0 HT 0-0 Twente Twente HOL
05.05.2024 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 2-1 HT 0-1 Twente Twente HOL
13.01.2024 Twente Twente 2-1 HT 1-1 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar HOL
19.03.2023 Twente Twente 2-1 HT 2-0 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar HOL
11.09.2022 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 1-1 HT 0-0 Twente Twente HOL
13.03.2022 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 0-1 HT 0-0 Twente Twente HOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Twente
2-3
AWAY AZ Alkmaar
2.14 xG 2.35
51% Ball Possession 49%
20 Total Shots 16
6 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 9
378 Passes 341
83% Pass Accuracy 80%
27 Box Touches 38
9 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Twente vs AZ Alkmaar
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AZ Alkmaar squeezed past Twente 3-2 away from home. The game was level at 2-2 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 29% / 32% — and on the day AZ Alkmaar made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Twente had 51% of the ball to AZ Alkmaar's 49%, shots finished 20-16, expected goals 2.14 to 2.35.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Twente had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Twente and 1.00 for AZ Alkmaar.

What was the final score of Twente vs AZ Alkmaar?

Twente 2-3 AZ Alkmaar in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 14/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Twente vs AZ Alkmaar?

Before kick-off our model rated a Twente win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Twente 39%, draw 29%, AZ Alkmaar 32%. The final score 2-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Twente) ✗ Under 2.5
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