Twente vs AZ Alkmaar Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Twente v AZ Alkmaar — Team-Based Signals
Twente vs AZ Alkmaar Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
2-1
HT 2-0
AZ Alkmaar
HOL
1-1
HT 0-0
Twente
HOL
0-1
HT 0-0
Twente
HOL
Twente 2-3 AZ Alkmaar — Actual Match Statistics
AZ Alkmaar squeezed past Twente 3-2 away from home. The game was level at 2-2 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 29% / 32% — and on the day AZ Alkmaar made the difference.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.
On the day, Twente had 51% of the ball to AZ Alkmaar's 49%, shots finished 20-16, expected goals 2.14 to 2.35.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Twente had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Twente and 1.00 for AZ Alkmaar.
What was the final score of Twente vs AZ Alkmaar?
Twente 2-3 AZ Alkmaar in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 14/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Twente vs AZ Alkmaar?
Before kick-off our model rated a Twente win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Twente 39%, draw 29%, AZ Alkmaar 32%. The final score 2-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.