Pachuca 2-1 Leon — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 14 Jan 2026

Pachuca
2-1 HT 1-0
Leon
📅14/01/2026 · 🕒04:06 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.86
Draw
23%
3.45
Away
28%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.97
Over 2.5
51%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.7
No
46%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
3.47
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
3.21
6+ Goals
11%
11.4
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
17%
X/2
10%
X/X
10%
2/1
8%
2/2
12%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
50%
-0.5pp
23%
Draw
26%
-2.8pp
28%
Away Win
24%
+3.4pp
49%
Under 2.5
47%
+2.1pp
51%
Over 2.5
53%
-2.1pp
54%
BTTS Yes
55%
-0.6pp
46%
BTTS No
45%
+0.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Pachuca EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Leon EU Bookmakers 28%
-1% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +10%
1.52/0.98 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.11/1.51
+7% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / -8%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
309 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 288 · 78%
23.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.7
18.7 Crosses 13.2
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Pachuca
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Leon
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.33 xG 1.31
50% Ball Possession 49%
15 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
330 Passes 306
81% Pass Accuracy 78%
24 Box Touches 20
14 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 3
24.08.2025 Leon Leon 1-1 HT 1-1 Pachuca Pachuca MEK
06.02.2025 Pachuca Pachuca 1-2 HT 1-1 Leon Leon MEK
14.07.2024 Leon Leon 0-0 HT 0-0 Pachuca Pachuca MEK
08.02.2024 Pachuca Pachuca 3-2 HT 1-2 Leon Leon MEK
11.07.2023 Leon Leon 4-0 HT 3-0 Pachuca Pachuca MEK
05.02.2023 Leon Leon 0-1 HT 0-1 Pachuca Pachuca MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Pachuca
2-1
AWAY Leon
0.79 xG 0.74
46% Ball Possession 54%
14 Total Shots 13
8 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 6
355 Passes 421
83% Pass Accuracy 86%
12 Box Touches 28
8 Crosses 21
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Pachuca vs Leon
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Pachuca edged past Leon 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Pachuca as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Pachuca had 46% of the ball to Leon's 54%, shots finished 14-13, expected goals 0.79 to 0.74.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Pachuca and 1.50 for Leon.

What was the final score of Pachuca vs Leon?

Pachuca 2-1 Leon in the Mexico - Primera on 14/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Pachuca vs Leon?

Before kick-off our model rated a Pachuca win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Pachuca 49%, draw 23%, Leon 28%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Pachuca), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Pachuca) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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