Fenerbahçe 0-1 Union Saint-Gilloise — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA Europa Conference League, 14 Mar 2024

📅14/03/2024 · 🕒20:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.72
Draw
23%
3.8
Away
23%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.29
Over 2.5
56%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.6
No
50%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
4.74
2-3 Goals
41%
1.92
4-5 Goals
25%
2.83
6+ Goals
14%
7.81
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
2.16
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
14.55
X/1
17%
4.18
X/2
7%
9.22
X/X
10%
6.12
2/1 EV+ ✗
7%
20.35
2/2
11%
6.37
2/X
7%
14.9
Value flag · 2/1 at 20.35 — our 7% vs market 2.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
54%
+0.3pp
23%
Draw
23%
-0.5pp
23%
Away Win
23%
+0.1pp
44%
Under 2.5
40%
+3.9pp
56%
Over 2.5
60%
-3.9pp
50%
BTTS Yes
58%
-8.3pp
50%
BTTS No
42%
+8.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fenerbahçe EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Union Saint-Gilloise EU Bookmakers 26%
+33% / +33% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +60% / +60%
2.15/0.57 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.79/1.18
+131% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +75% / +45%
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
431 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 383 · 80%
30.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.0
16.0 Crosses 11.0
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fenerbahçe
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Union Saint-Gilloise
3.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
1.76 xG 0.95
49% Ball Possession 51%
8 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 2
1 Corners 12
335 Passes 333
75% Pass Accuracy 74%
15 Box Touches 35
5 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 3
07.03.2024 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise 0-3 HT 0-1 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe AVKL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fenerbahçe
0-1
AWAY Union Saint-Gilloise
0.66 xG 1.73
49% Ball Possession 51%
8 Total Shots 12
1 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 12
421 Passes 436
84% Pass Accuracy 86%
16 Box Touches 22
9 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Fenerbahçe vs Union Saint-Gilloise
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Union Saint-Gilloise squeezed past Fenerbahçe 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Fenerbahçe at 54%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Fenerbahçe had 49% of the ball to Union Saint-Gilloise's 51%, shots finished 8-12, expected goals 0.66 to 1.73.

What was the final score of Fenerbahçe vs Union Saint-Gilloise?

Fenerbahçe 0-1 Union Saint-Gilloise in the UEFA Europa Conference League on 14/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fenerbahçe vs Union Saint-Gilloise?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fenerbahçe win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Fenerbahçe 54%, draw 23%, Union Saint-Gilloise 23%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Fenerbahçe) ✗ Over 2.5
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