PAOK 5-1 Dinamo Zagreb — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA Europa Conference League, 14 Mar 2024

📅14/03/2024 · 🕒20:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.76
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
30%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.91
Over 2.5
48%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.76
No
53%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.4
2-3 Goals
41%
1.79
4-5 Goals
21%
3.48
6+ Goals
8%
13.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.4 — our 30% vs market 23.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.36
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
7%
14.3
X/1
18%
4.11
X/2
11%
8.51
X/X
13%
4.98
2/1
6%
23.6
2/2
15%
6.51
2/X
4%
14.9
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
53%
-7.4pp
25%
Draw
25%
-0.3pp
30%
Away Win
23%
+7.5pp
52%
Under 2.5
48%
+3.4pp
48%
Over 2.5
52%
-3.4pp
47%
BTTS Yes
53%
-5.5pp
53%
BTTS No
47%
+5.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME PAOK EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Dinamo Zagreb EU Bookmakers 26%
+16% / +16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -43% / -43%
1.03/1.46 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.57/2.48
+28% / +70% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% / +45%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
392 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 261 · 73%
15.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.0
21.0 Crosses 28.0
2.8 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME PAOK
2W-0D-1L
AWAY Dinamo Zagreb
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
0.43 xG 1.60
60% Ball Possession 40%
7 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
496 Passes 296
85% Pass Accuracy 77%
22 Box Touches 16
19 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 3
07.03.2024 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb 2-0 HT 1-0 PAOK PAOK AVKL
15.12.2010 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb 0-1 HT 0-0 PAOK PAOK AVL
30.09.2010 PAOK PAOK 1-0 HT 0-0 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb AVL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME PAOK
5-1
AWAY Dinamo Zagreb
3.28 xG 0.90
49% Ball Possession 51%
18 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 6
289 Passes 296
79% Pass Accuracy 79%
27 Box Touches 20
22 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH PAOK vs Dinamo Zagreb
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

PAOK swept aside Dinamo Zagreb 5-1. Half-time: 3-0. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had PAOK as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 5-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, PAOK had 49% of the ball to Dinamo Zagreb's 51%, shots finished 18-10, expected goals 3.28 to 0.90.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, PAOK had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for PAOK and 0.67 for Dinamo Zagreb.

What was the final score of PAOK vs Dinamo Zagreb?

PAOK 5-1 Dinamo Zagreb in the UEFA Europa Conference League on 14/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for PAOK vs Dinamo Zagreb?

Before kick-off our model rated a PAOK win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split PAOK 45%, draw 25%, Dinamo Zagreb 30%. The final score 5-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (PAOK) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (PAOK) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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