Fiorentina 1-1 Maccabi Haifa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA Europa Conference League, 14 Mar 2024

📅14/03/2024 · 🕒20:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
58%
1.42
Draw
23%
4.49
Away
19%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.43
Over 2.5
52%
1.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.73
No
50%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
5.19
2-3 Goals
39%
1.97
4-5 Goals
26%
2.72
6+ Goals
12%
6.9
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1.65
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
18.55
X/1
20%
3.69
X/2
7%
14.85
X/X
12%
7.39
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
20.3
2/2
6%
10.75
2/X
6%
18.8
Value flag · 2/1 at 20.3 — our 8% vs market 2.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
66%
-8.4pp
23%
Draw
19%
+4.1pp
19%
Away Win
14%
+4.4pp
48%
Under 2.5
38%
+10.0pp
52%
Over 2.5
62%
-10.0pp
50%
BTTS Yes
54%
-3.8pp
50%
BTTS No
46%
+3.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fiorentina EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Maccabi Haifa EU Bookmakers 17%
-16% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -11%
2.11/1.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.64/1.57
+1% / -52% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -29% / +16%
56% Ball Possession 44%
17 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
416 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 301 · 78%
28.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 10.3
23.7 Crosses 7.7
2.6 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fiorentina
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Maccabi Haifa
4.00 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
1.77 xG 0.72
69% Ball Possession 31%
23 Total Shots 7
8 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 2
515 Passes 180
89% Pass Accuracy 67%
40 Box Touches 11
33 Crosses 4
2 Yellow Cards 2
07.03.2024 Maccabi Haifa Maccabi Haifa 3-4 HT 2-1 Fiorentina Fiorentina AVKL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fiorentina
1-1
AWAY Maccabi Haifa
1.26 xG 0.11
57% Ball Possession 43%
17 Total Shots 3
4 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 0
434 Passes 312
86% Pass Accuracy 80%
36 Box Touches 5
27 Crosses 5
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Fiorentina vs Maccabi Haifa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fiorentina and Maccabi Haifa couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

This one beat our numbers. Fiorentina carried 58% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Fiorentina had 57% of the ball to Maccabi Haifa's 43%, shots finished 17-3, expected goals 1.26 to 0.11.

What was the final score of Fiorentina vs Maccabi Haifa?

Fiorentina 1-1 Maccabi Haifa in the UEFA Europa Conference League on 14/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fiorentina vs Maccabi Haifa?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fiorentina win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Fiorentina 58%, draw 23%, Maccabi Haifa 19%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Fiorentina) ✗ Over 2.5
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