Aubagne 1-0 Bourg en Bresse 01 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - National League 1, 14 Mar 2025

📅14/03/2025 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.27
Draw
30%
2.83
Away
30%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
66%
1.45
Over 2.5
34%
2.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.13
No
59%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
38%
2.04
2-3 Goals
37%
1.75
4-5 Goals
16%
5.53
6+ Goals
9%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
3.49
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
13.9
X/1
17%
4.86
X/2
10%
6.35
X/X
15%
3.4
2/1
8%
34.5
2/2
15%
5.26
2/X
9%
14.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
40%
-0.2pp
30%
Draw
32%
-1.8pp
30%
Away Win
28%
+1.9pp
66%
Under 2.5
65%
+1.0pp
34%
Over 2.5
35%
-1.0pp
41%
BTTS Yes
43%
-2.1pp
59%
BTTS No
57%
+2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Aubagne EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Bourg en Bresse 01 EU Bookmakers 32%
-33% / -33% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -1%
1.00/1.51 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.96/1.03
-24% / -28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -17% / +21%
56% Ball Possession 44%
12 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
405 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 296 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Aubagne
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Bourg en Bresse 01
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
18.10.2024 Bourg en Bresse 01 Bourg en Bresse 01 2-1 HT 1-0 Aubagne Aubagne FR3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Aubagne
1-0
AWAY Bourg en Bresse 01
54% Ball Possession 46%
5 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 3
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Aubagne vs Bourg en Bresse 01
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Aubagne squeezed past Bourg en Bresse 01 1-0.

Our pre-match split (40% / 30% / 30%) promised a tight game; Aubagne found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (66%), no to both teams scoring (59%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Aubagne had 54% of the ball to Bourg en Bresse 01's 46%, shots finished 5-12.

What was the final score of Aubagne vs Bourg en Bresse 01?

Aubagne 1-0 Bourg en Bresse 01 in the France - National League 1 on 14/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Aubagne vs Bourg en Bresse 01?

Before kick-off our model rated a Aubagne win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Aubagne 40%, draw 30%, Bourg en Bresse 01 30%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Aubagne), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Aubagne) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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