Le Mans FC 2-0 Chateauroux — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - National League 1, 14 Mar 2025

📅14/03/2025 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.49
Draw
23%
3.8
Away
21%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.78
Over 2.5
46%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.09
No
54%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
2.87
2-3 Goals
42%
1.72
4-5 Goals
21%
3.64
6+ Goals
9%
15.8
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.87 — our 28% vs market 27.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1.87
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
8%
17.4
X/1
22%
3.75
X/2
8%
12.2
X/X
9%
5.26
2/1
6%
25.0
2/2
9%
10.95
2/X
6%
19.9
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
63%
-6.6pp
23%
Draw
23%
-0.2pp
21%
Away Win
15%
+6.7pp
54%
Under 2.5
52%
+1.2pp
46%
Over 2.5
48%
-1.2pp
46%
BTTS Yes
44%
+1.8pp
54%
BTTS No
56%
-1.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Le Mans FC EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Chateauroux EU Bookmakers 18%
-3% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / +3%
2.63/1.43 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.77/1.66
+50% / -35% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -19% / -6%
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
334 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 327 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.2 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Le Mans FC
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Chateauroux
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
53% Ball Possession 47%
7 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 2
18.10.2024 Chateauroux Chateauroux 1-2 HT 1-0 Le Mans FC Le Mans FC FR3
12.04.2024 Chateauroux Chateauroux 1-2 HT 1-1 Le Mans FC Le Mans FC FR3
13.11.2023 Le Mans FC Le Mans FC 1-1 HT 0-0 Chateauroux Chateauroux FR3
14.04.2023 Le Mans FC Le Mans FC 1-1 HT 0-0 Chateauroux Chateauroux FR3
28.11.2022 Chateauroux Chateauroux 0-3 HT 0-2 Le Mans FC Le Mans FC FR3
21.01.2022 Le Mans FC Le Mans FC 1-0 HT 0-0 Chateauroux Chateauroux FR3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Le Mans FC
2-0
AWAY Chateauroux
55% Ball Possession 45%
11 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 2
4 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Le Mans FC vs Chateauroux
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Le Mans FC beat Chateauroux 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Le Mans FC as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Le Mans FC had 55% of the ball to Chateauroux's 45%, shots finished 11-7.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Le Mans FC had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Le Mans FC and 0.67 for Chateauroux.

What was the final score of Le Mans FC vs Chateauroux?

Le Mans FC 2-0 Chateauroux in the France - National League 1 on 14/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Le Mans FC vs Chateauroux?

Before kick-off our model rated a Le Mans FC win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Le Mans FC 56%, draw 23%, Chateauroux 21%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Le Mans FC), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Le Mans FC) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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