Kilmarnock vs Hearts Prediction — Model Probabilities
Kilmarnock v Hearts — Team-Based Signals
Kilmarnock vs Hearts Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
Kilmarnock 1-0 Hearts — Actual Match Statistics
Kilmarnock squeezed past Hearts 1-0.
File this under upsets: a 56% lean on Hearts went begging. That's football — and exactly why we publish probabilities, not promises. The one blemish: over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (55%) never looked like landing.
The match data tells the story: Kilmarnock had 39% of the ball to Hearts's 61%, shots finished 11-15, expected goals 1.27 to 1.06.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Hearts led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Kilmarnock and 1.50 for Hearts.
Kilmarnock vs Hearts Result & Final Score
Kilmarnock 1 - 0 Hearts in the Scotland - Premiership on 14/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
Kilmarnock vs Hearts Prediction vs Result
Before kick-off our model rated an Hearts win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Kilmarnock 21%, draw 23%, Hearts 56%. The final score 1-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.