Hearts 1-1 Kilmarnock — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Scotland - Premiership, 3 Dec 2025

📅03/12/2025 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
68%
1.32
Draw
19%
4.62
Away
13%
7.37
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.0
Over 2.5
56%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
2.13
No
47%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.65
2-3 Goals
37%
1.81
4-5 Goals
26%
3.21
6+ Goals
12%
11.1
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
37%
1.56
1/2
3%
35.0
1/X
7%
21.45
X/1
22%
3.7
X/2
6%
18.3
X/X
7%
6.81
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
24.85
2/2
3%
16.95
2/X
6%
25.5
Value flag · 2/1 at 24.85 — our 9% vs market 1.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
68%
Home Win
71%
-2.6pp
19%
Draw
18%
+0.8pp
12%
Away Win
11%
+1.9pp
44%
Under 2.5
46%
-2.4pp
56%
Over 2.5
54%
+2.4pp
52%
BTTS Yes
43%
+9.7pp
48%
BTTS No
57%
-9.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hearts EU Bookmakers 76%
Head to Head
AWAY Kilmarnock EU Bookmakers 14%
+3% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +5%
1.72/0.81 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.72/2.42
-15% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / -18%
59% Ball Possession 41%
15 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
386 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 218 · 69%
28.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.9
23.7 Crosses 14.5
1.2 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hearts
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Kilmarnock
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.70 xG 1.12
60% Ball Possession 40%
14 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
405 Passes 224
79% Pass Accuracy 67%
28 Box Touches 22
24 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 3
18.10.2025 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock 0-3 HT 0-1 Hearts Hearts İKP
18.05.2025 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock 0-1 HT 0-0 Hearts Hearts İKP
25.01.2025 Hearts Hearts 3-2 HT 1-0 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock İKP
15.12.2024 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock 1-0 HT 1-0 Hearts Hearts İKP
30.10.2024 Hearts Hearts 1-2 HT 1-0 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock İKP
27.04.2024 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock 0-0 HT 0-0 Hearts Hearts İKP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hearts
1-1
AWAY Kilmarnock
2.19 xG 1.75
65% Ball Possession 35%
18 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 5
9 Corners 1
460 Passes 205
80% Pass Accuracy 65%
45 Box Touches 18
37 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Hearts vs Kilmarnock
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hearts and Kilmarnock couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Hearts at 68% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Hearts had 65% of the ball to Kilmarnock's 35%, shots finished 18-11, expected goals 2.19 to 1.75.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Hearts had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Hearts and 0.83 for Kilmarnock.

What was the final score of Hearts vs Kilmarnock?

Hearts 1-1 Kilmarnock in the Scotland - Premiership on 03/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hearts vs Kilmarnock?

Before kick-off our model rated a Hearts win the most likely single outcome at about 68%, with the full match-result split Hearts 68%, draw 19%, Kilmarnock 12%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Hearts), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Hearts) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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