Hearts 3-2 Kilmarnock — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Scotland - Premiership, 25 Jan 2025

📅25/01/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.82
Draw
28%
3.45
Away
25%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.78
Over 2.5
44%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.85
No
52%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.04
2-3 Goals
41%
1.8
4-5 Goals
20%
3.91
6+ Goals
10%
17.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.04 — our 29% vs market 27.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.49
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
5%
14.15
X/1
18%
4.29
X/2
7%
8.07
X/X
17%
4.66
2/1
7%
24.7
2/2
11%
6.53
2/X
6%
15.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
51%
-4.2pp
28%
Draw
26%
+2.6pp
25%
Away Win
24%
+1.6pp
56%
Under 2.5
52%
+3.5pp
44%
Over 2.5
48%
-3.5pp
48%
BTTS Yes
50%
-1.7pp
52%
BTTS No
50%
+1.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hearts EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Kilmarnock EU Bookmakers 27%
+1% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +8%
1.58/1.15 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.11/1.33
+14% / +24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / +16%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 5
281 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 196 · 64%
29.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.4
26.5 Crosses 22.7
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hearts
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Kilmarnock
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.30 xG 1.36
62% Ball Possession 38%
14 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
405 Passes 203
77% Pass Accuracy 64%
28 Box Touches 24
26 Crosses 22
1 Yellow Cards 2
15.12.2024 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock 1-0 HT 1-0 Hearts Hearts İKP
30.10.2024 Hearts Hearts 1-2 HT 1-0 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock İKP
27.04.2024 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock 0-0 HT 0-0 Hearts Hearts İKP
30.03.2024 Hearts Hearts 1-1 HT 1-0 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock İKP
02.12.2023 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock 0-1 HT 0-1 Hearts Hearts İKP
26.09.2023 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock 1-2 HT 0-1 Hearts Hearts İKLK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hearts
3-2
AWAY Kilmarnock
2.51 xG 1.05
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 8
3 Corners 7
234 Passes 225
67% Pass Accuracy 63%
19 Box Touches 19
13 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Hearts vs Kilmarnock
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hearts squeezed past Kilmarnock 3-2. Half-time: 1-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Hearts as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Hearts had 49% of the ball to Kilmarnock's 51%, shots finished 10-15, expected goals 2.51 to 1.05 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Hearts's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Hearts and 0.83 for Kilmarnock.

What was the final score of Hearts vs Kilmarnock?

Hearts 3-2 Kilmarnock in the Scotland - Premiership on 25/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hearts vs Kilmarnock?

Before kick-off our model rated a Hearts win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Hearts 47%, draw 28%, Kilmarnock 25%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Hearts) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Hearts) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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