Kilmarnock 0-1 Hearts — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Scotland - Premiership, 18 May 2025

📅18/05/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.27
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
38%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.95
Over 2.5
49%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.63
No
50%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
28%
3.43
2-3 Goals
42%
1.78
4-5 Goals
22%
3.23
6+ Goals
8%
11.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.43 — our 28% vs market 22.9%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
14%
X/2
14%
X/X
14%
2/1
6%
2/2
18%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
40%
-4.8pp
27%
Draw
27%
+0.3pp
38%
Away Win
33%
+4.4pp
51%
Under 2.5
48%
+3.2pp
49%
Over 2.5
52%
-3.2pp
50%
BTTS Yes
57%
-6.7pp
50%
BTTS No
43%
+6.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kilmarnock EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Hearts EU Bookmakers 37%
+2% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -7%
1.68/1.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.27/1.27
+17% / +23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / +4%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
293 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 279 · 71%
25.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.3
24.0 Crosses 20.8
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kilmarnock
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Hearts
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.30 xG 1.50
40% Ball Possession 60%
14 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
206 Passes 377
64% Pass Accuracy 76%
23 Box Touches 27
21 Crosses 24
3 Yellow Cards 1
25.01.2025 Hearts Hearts 3-2 HT 1-0 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock İKP
15.12.2024 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock 1-0 HT 1-0 Hearts Hearts İKP
30.10.2024 Hearts Hearts 1-2 HT 1-0 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock İKP
27.04.2024 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock 0-0 HT 0-0 Hearts Hearts İKP
30.03.2024 Hearts Hearts 1-1 HT 1-0 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock İKP
02.12.2023 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock 0-1 HT 0-1 Hearts Hearts İKP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Kilmarnock
0-1
AWAY Hearts
1.07 xG 0.68
48% Ball Possession 52%
17 Total Shots 11
1 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 4
311 Passes 365
82% Pass Accuracy 84%
23 Box Touches 17
25 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Kilmarnock vs Hearts
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hearts edged past Kilmarnock 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 27% / 38% — and on the day Hearts made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Kilmarnock had 48% of the ball to Hearts's 52%, shots finished 17-11, expected goals 1.07 to 0.68.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Kilmarnock and 1.00 for Hearts.

What was the final score of Kilmarnock vs Hearts?

Kilmarnock 0-1 Hearts in the Scotland - Premiership on 18/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kilmarnock vs Hearts?

Before kick-off our model rated an Hearts win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Kilmarnock 35%, draw 27%, Hearts 38%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Hearts), Under 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Hearts) ✓ Under 2.5
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