Tecnico Universitario 2-1 Libertad — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ecuador - Premier, 14 Mar 2026

📅14/03/2026 · 🕒00:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.09
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
32%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.68
Over 2.5
46%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.88
No
50%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
9%
1/X
7%
X/1
8%
X/2
15%
X/X
15%
2/1
8%
2/2
8%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
44%
-3.0pp
27%
Draw
27%
-0.0pp
32%
Away Win
29%
+2.9pp
54%
Under 2.5
56%
-1.1pp
46%
Over 2.5
44%
+1.1pp
50%
BTTS Yes
49%
+0.7pp
50%
BTTS No
51%
-0.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tecnico Universitario EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Libertad EU Bookmakers 32%
-13% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +2%
1.23/1.02 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.05/1.65
-30% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +19% / -8%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
295 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 289 · 77%
19.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.7
21.3 Crosses 12.4
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tecnico Universitario
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Libertad
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.49 xG 1.07
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
230 Passes 227
75% Pass Accuracy 72%
18 Box Touches 16
22 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 2
21.06.2025 Libertad Libertad 4-1 HT 3-0 Tecnico Universitario Tecnico Universitario EKV1
25.02.2025 Tecnico Universitario Tecnico Universitario 2-2 HT 1-0 Libertad Libertad EKV1
17.09.2024 Tecnico Universitario Tecnico Universitario 3-0 HT 1-0 Libertad Libertad EKV1
30.03.2024 Libertad Libertad 1-0 HT 0-0 Tecnico Universitario Tecnico Universitario EKV1
27.11.2023 Tecnico Universitario Tecnico Universitario 1-1 HT 0-0 Libertad Libertad EKV1
10.06.2023 Libertad Libertad 1-0 HT 0-0 Tecnico Universitario Tecnico Universitario EKV1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Tecnico Universitario
2-1
AWAY Libertad
2.00 xG 0.94
49% Ball Possession 51%
18 Total Shots 7
8 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 9
338 Passes 331
84% Pass Accuracy 81%
14 Box Touches 19
21 Crosses 25
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Tecnico Universitario vs Libertad
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tecnico Universitario edged past Libertad 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Tecnico Universitario as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Tecnico Universitario had 49% of the ball to Libertad's 51%, shots finished 18-7, expected goals 2.00 to 0.94.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Libertad led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Tecnico Universitario and 1.50 for Libertad.

What was the final score of Tecnico Universitario vs Libertad?

Tecnico Universitario 2-1 Libertad in the Ecuador - Premier on 14/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tecnico Universitario vs Libertad?

Before kick-off our model rated a Tecnico Universitario win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Tecnico Universitario 41%, draw 27%, Libertad 32%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Tecnico Universitario) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Tecnico Universitario) ✗ Under 2.5
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