Cerro vs Progreso Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Cerro v Progreso — Team-Based Signals
Cerro vs Progreso Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-1
HT 1-0
Progreso
URU2
2-0
HT 1-0
Progreso
URU
Cerro 0-1 Progreso — Actual Match Statistics
Progreso squeezed past Cerro 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
Our pre-match split (40% / 27% / 33%) promised a tight game; Progreso found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (59%), and that read landed as well.
On the day, Cerro had 50% of the ball to Progreso's 50%, shots finished 9-7.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Cerro and 1.00 for Progreso.
What was the final score of Cerro vs Progreso?
Cerro 0-1 Progreso in the Uruguay - Premier League on 14/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Cerro vs Progreso?
Before kick-off our model rated a Cerro win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Cerro 40%, draw 27%, Progreso 33%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Cerro) went the other way.