Casertana 2-1 Picerno — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 14 Apr 2024

📅14/04/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.09
Draw
30%
3.04
Away
27%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.54
Over 2.5
42%
2.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.03
No
55%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2.37
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
20%
5.1
6+ Goals
8%
31.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
12%
X/2
10%
X/X
15%
2/1
9%
2/2
11%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
44%
-0.9pp
30%
Draw
29%
+0.5pp
27%
Away Win
27%
+0.4pp
58%
Under 2.5
61%
-2.7pp
42%
Over 2.5
39%
+2.7pp
45%
BTTS Yes
45%
-0.5pp
55%
BTTS No
55%
+0.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Casertana EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Picerno EU Bookmakers 30%
+7% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +14%
1.22/0.62 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.11/1.05
-7% / +57% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / +18%
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
337 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 282 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Casertana
1W-3D-0L
AWAY Picerno
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 5
4 Yellow Cards 3
08.12.2023 Picerno Picerno 0-0 HT 0-0 Casertana Casertana İTC
02.02.2020 Casertana Casertana 1-1 HT 0-0 Picerno Picerno İTC
22.09.2019 Picerno Picerno 1-1 HT 0-1 Casertana Casertana İTC
28.07.2018 Casertana Casertana 2-0 HT 1-0 Picerno Picerno İTK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Casertana
2-1
AWAY Picerno
50% Ball Possession 50%
8 Total Shots 5
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Casertana vs Picerno
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Casertana squeezed past Picerno 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Casertana as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Casertana had 50% of the ball to Picerno's 50%, shots finished 8-5.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Casertana had the better of it with 1 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Casertana and 0.50 for Picerno.

What was the final score of Casertana vs Picerno?

Casertana 2-1 Picerno in the Italy - Serie C on 14/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Casertana vs Picerno?

Before kick-off our model rated a Casertana win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Casertana 43%, draw 30%, Picerno 27%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Casertana) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Casertana) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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