Vis Pesaro 1-0 Perugia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 14 Apr 2024

📅14/04/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
3.08
Draw
29%
3.18
Away
39%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.6
Over 2.5
41%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.96
No
58%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2.53
2-3 Goals
42%
1.77
4-5 Goals
18%
4.67
6+ Goals
8%
25.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
8%
1/X
7%
X/1
12%
X/2
12%
X/X
15%
2/1
9%
2/2
19%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
29%
+3.2pp
29%
Draw
28%
+1.1pp
39%
Away Win
43%
-4.2pp
59%
Under 2.5
59%
+0.8pp
41%
Over 2.5
41%
-0.8pp
42%
BTTS Yes
47%
-4.5pp
58%
BTTS No
53%
+4.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vis Pesaro EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Perugia EU Bookmakers 48%
-4% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -9%
0.92/1.22 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.10/0.94
-16% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -20% / +3%
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
292 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 221 · 68%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.4 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vis Pesaro
0W-1D-2L
AWAY Perugia
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
43% Ball Possession 57%
8 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
4 Yellow Cards 2
10.12.2023 Perugia Perugia 2-2 HT 2-1 Vis Pesaro Vis Pesaro İTC
21.02.2021 Vis Pesaro Vis Pesaro 0-1 HT 0-1 Perugia Perugia İTC
25.10.2020 Perugia Perugia 2-1 HT 0-0 Vis Pesaro Vis Pesaro İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vis Pesaro
1-0
AWAY Perugia
51% Ball Possession 49%
8 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
POST-MATCH Vis Pesaro vs Perugia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vis Pesaro edged past Perugia 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (32% / 29% / 39%) promised a tight game; Vis Pesaro found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (58%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Vis Pesaro had 51% of the ball to Perugia's 49%, shots finished 8-14.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Perugia led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Vis Pesaro and 1.67 for Perugia.

What was the final score of Vis Pesaro vs Perugia?

Vis Pesaro 1-0 Perugia in the Italy - Serie C on 14/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vis Pesaro vs Perugia?

Before kick-off our model rated an Perugia win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Vis Pesaro 32%, draw 29%, Perugia 39%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Perugia) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Perugia) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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