CA Penarol 0-2 Liverpool FC (Montevideo) — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uruguay - Premier League, 14 Apr 2026

📅14/04/2026 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.72
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
19%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.67
Over 2.5
49%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
2.03
No
46%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
44%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
1/2
4%
1/X
8%
X/1
14%
X/2
4%
X/X
8%
2/1
10%
2/2
11%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS Yes ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
54%
+1.3pp
25%
Draw
26%
-1.2pp
19%
Away Win
20%
-0.1pp
51%
Under 2.5
56%
-4.7pp
49%
Over 2.5
44%
+4.7pp
54%
BTTS Yes
45%
+9.0pp
46%
BTTS No
55%
-9.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME CA Penarol EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Liverpool FC (Montevideo) EU Bookmakers 22%
-1% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +10%
1.49/0.78 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/1.12
-10% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +21% / +21%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
347 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 287 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.2 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME CA Penarol
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Liverpool FC (Montevideo)
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 7
8 Shots on Target 4
9 Corners 3
3 Yellow Cards 3
17.11.2025 Liverpool FC (Montevideo) Liverpool FC (Montevideo) 1-2 HT 0-0 CA Penarol CA Penarol URU
13.09.2025 Liverpool FC (Montevideo) Liverpool FC (Montevideo) 2-2 HT 2-1 CA Penarol CA Penarol URU
11.09.2025 CA Penarol CA Penarol 2-1 Liverpool FC (Montevideo) Liverpool FC (Montevideo) URUK
19.06.2025 Liverpool FC (Montevideo) Liverpool FC (Montevideo) 3-2 HT 0-1 CA Penarol CA Penarol URU
21.03.2025 CA Penarol CA Penarol 0-3 HT 0-1 Liverpool FC (Montevideo) Liverpool FC (Montevideo) URU
10.11.2024 CA Penarol CA Penarol 2-0 HT 1-0 Liverpool FC (Montevideo) Liverpool FC (Montevideo) URU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME CA Penarol
0-2
AWAY Liverpool FC (Montevideo)
67% Ball Possession 33%
18 Total Shots 8
8 Shots on Target 4
9 Corners 2
POST-MATCH CA Penarol vs Liverpool FC (Montevideo)
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Liverpool FC (Montevideo) saw off CA Penarol 2-0 away from home.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had CA Penarol at 56% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, CA Penarol had 67% of the ball to Liverpool FC (Montevideo)'s 33%, shots finished 18-8.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, CA Penarol had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for CA Penarol and 1.67 for Liverpool FC (Montevideo).

What was the final score of CA Penarol vs Liverpool FC (Montevideo)?

CA Penarol 0-2 Liverpool FC (Montevideo) in the Uruguay - Premier League on 14/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for CA Penarol vs Liverpool FC (Montevideo)?

Before kick-off our model rated a CA Penarol win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split CA Penarol 56%, draw 25%, Liverpool FC (Montevideo) 19%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (CA Penarol), BTTS Yes went the other way.

✗ Match Result (CA Penarol) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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