St. Mirren 2-2 Hibernian — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Scotland - Premiership, 14 May 2025

📅14/05/2025 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.46
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
35%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.82
Over 2.5
49%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.7
No
53%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.31
2-3 Goals
43%
1.83
4-5 Goals
20%
3.73
6+ Goals
10%
15.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.31 — our 27% vs market 25.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
3.74
1/2
6%
29.5
1/X
6%
12.8
X/1
12%
5.72
X/2
14%
5.95
X/X
14%
4.52
2/1
6%
28.5
2/2
14%
3.98
2/X
8%
12.9
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
37%
+1.0pp
27%
Draw
28%
-1.1pp
35%
Away Win
35%
+0.0pp
51%
Under 2.5
51%
-0.1pp
49%
Over 2.5
49%
+0.1pp
47%
BTTS Yes
55%
-8.1pp
53%
BTTS No
45%
+8.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME St. Mirren EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Hibernian EU Bookmakers 38%
+1% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -10%
1.23/1.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.27/1.11
-4% / +27% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / -3%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
263 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 287 · 71%
21.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.9
24.9 Crosses 21.0
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME St. Mirren
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Hibernian
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.59 xG 1.10
44% Ball Possession 56%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 5
221 Passes 310
67% Pass Accuracy 75%
22 Box Touches 20
26 Crosses 24
3 Yellow Cards 2
16.02.2025 St. Mirren St. Mirren 0-0 HT 0-0 Hibernian Hibernian İKP
09.11.2024 Hibernian Hibernian 1-2 HT 0-2 St. Mirren St. Mirren İKP
04.08.2024 St. Mirren St. Mirren 3-0 HT 0-0 Hibernian Hibernian İKP
03.02.2024 Hibernian Hibernian 0-3 HT 0-3 St. Mirren St. Mirren İKP
08.11.2023 St. Mirren St. Mirren 2-2 HT 0-1 Hibernian Hibernian İKP
27.09.2023 Hibernian Hibernian 4-2 HT 0-1 St. Mirren St. Mirren İKLK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME St. Mirren
2-2
AWAY Hibernian
0.70 xG 1.34
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
207 Passes 228
68% Pass Accuracy 74%
35 Box Touches 22
28 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH St. Mirren vs Hibernian
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

St. Mirren and Hibernian couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. Half-time: 1-2.

Our pre-match split (38% / 27% / 35%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, St. Mirren had 52% of the ball to Hibernian's 48%, shots finished 11-9, expected goals 0.70 to 1.34.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, St. Mirren had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for St. Mirren and 1.17 for Hibernian.

What was the final score of St. Mirren vs Hibernian?

St. Mirren 2-2 Hibernian in the Scotland - Premiership on 14/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for St. Mirren vs Hibernian?

Before kick-off our model rated a St. Mirren win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split St. Mirren 38%, draw 27%, Hibernian 35%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (St. Mirren) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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